Avian Flu Mutation Concerns Rise: Experts Warn of Potential Pandemic Worse Than COVID-19
A potential avian influenza pandemic, should the virus mutate to spread efficiently between humans, could surpass the severity of the COVID-19 crisis, experts caution. While human-to-human transmission remains unconfirmed, leading scientists are urging proactive preparation and vigilance.
Preparedness Key, But New Threat Demands Attention
A senior researcher at the Pasteur Institute in France voiced concerns in a recent interview with Reuters, highlighting the possibility of the virus adapting to mammals, specifically humans, and gaining the ability to spread person-to-person. The Institut Pasteur, a pioneer in developing the first European COVID-19 diagnostic kit and sharing protocols with the World Health Organization (WHO), is at the forefront of monitoring this evolving threat.
“What we are concerned about is that the virus will adapt to mammals, especially humans, and become capable of spreading between humans,” the researcher explained. This concern stems from a critical immunological difference: humans possess antibodies against common H1 and H3 seasonal influenza strains, but currently have no pre-existing immunity to the H5 avian influenza virus – a situation mirroring the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.
A More Deadly Flu?
The potential severity of an avian influenza pandemic is amplified by the virus’s inherent characteristics. Unlike COVID-19, the flu virus can cause severe illness and even death in otherwise healthy individuals, including children. A leading expert expressed concern that an avian influenza pandemic “could be more serious than any pandemic we have experienced.”
Currently, human infections remain rare and are typically linked to close contact with infected animals. Between 2003 and 2025, the WHO reports approximately 1,000 human cases of avian influenza, primarily in Egypt, Indonesia, and Vietnam, with a concerning 48% fatality rate among those infected.
Recently, the United States reported its first confirmed case of a human infected with the H5N5 variant of avian influenza, though the individual had pre-existing health conditions.
Low Probability, High Impact
Despite these developments, the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) suggests the immediate risk of a pandemic driven by human-to-human transmission remains low. “We must be prepared for an early response, but the risk of a pandemic is still very low in terms of probability,” stated Gregorio Torres of the OIE.
However, experts emphasize that past experiences with COVID-19 have underscored the importance of proactive preparation. The good news, according to the Pasteur Institute researcher, is that the world is demonstrably better prepared than it was in 2020.
“The positive thing compared to COVID-19 is that specific preventive measures are in place,” the researcher noted. “We have vaccine candidates ready, we know how to manufacture vaccines quickly, and we are also stockpiling antiviral drugs that will be effective against avian influenza viruses.”
This increased preparedness, coupled with ongoing surveillance and research, offers a crucial layer of defense against a potential global health crisis.
