The race to succeed Gavin Newsom as California’s governor is shaping up to be a surprisingly competitive contest, with a crowded field of candidates vying for the state’s highest office. A newly released poll from the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) reveals a remarkably tight race, with five candidates – Katie Porter, Eric Swalwell, Tom Steyer, Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco – separated by just four percentage points among likely voters. The February 2026 PPIC survey underscores the uncertainty surrounding the election, particularly as affordability concerns dominate the minds of California voters.
The open seat, coupled with a large number of contenders, has created a dynamic where even relatively unknown candidates have a path to the November general election. California’s unique “top-two” primary system, established in 2011, allows the two candidates receiving the most votes to advance, regardless of party affiliation. This system has historically favored candidates with broad appeal, but the current fractured Democratic field raises the possibility of two Republicans securing spots on the general election ballot – a scenario that hasn’t occurred since 2006.
A Tight Race at the Top
According to the PPIC poll, conservative commentator Steve Hilton currently leads the pack with 14% support, followed closely by former Rep. Katie Porter at 13%. Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco garnered 12%, while Rep. Eric Swalwell received 11% and hedge fund founder Tom Steyer secured 10%. Notably, one in ten likely voters remain undecided, highlighting the potential for significant shifts in the coming months. The crowded field includes a dozen prominent candidates, but no other contender received support from more than 5% of respondents.
The financial firepower of some candidates is already becoming a defining feature of the race. Steyer, a billionaire, has already self-funded $47.4 million into his campaign, utilizing television advertising to boost his name recognition. San José Mayor Matt Mahan, a more recent entrant into the race, is similarly benefiting from significant financial backing, with $7.3 million raised and a separate independent expenditure committee launching a $4.8 million television ad buy to introduce him to voters statewide.
Affordability and the Democratic Divide
Voter concerns about affordability are a central theme of the campaign. The PPIC poll found that nearly two-thirds of likely voters, and 78% of young voters, consider these factors critical when deciding who to support. This focus on economic issues could benefit candidates who can articulate clear plans to address the state’s high cost of living.
However, the large number of Democratic candidates vying for the nomination presents a challenge for the party. Concerns are growing that the vote will be splintered, potentially allowing the two leading Republican candidates to advance to the general election. The Los Angeles Times reported on these fears, noting the historical rarity of Republicans reaching the top two in California gubernatorial races under the current primary system.
Mahan’s Wild Card Entry and Recent Developments
San José Mayor Matt Mahan’s late entry into the race adds an element of unpredictability. While currently polling at 3%, his campaign is gaining traction with support from wealthy Silicon Valley donors. On Thursday, Mahan toured Pacific Palisades, a community still grappling with the aftermath of a deadly January 2025 wildfire, expressing concern over the lack of a single point of accountability for the rebuilding efforts. He also suggested a potentially advantageous relationship with President Trump to secure federal funding for the area, stating, “I don’t care who gets the credit, let’s fix the problem.”
Recent developments have also impacted the standing of other candidates. Support for Hilton and Bianco has remained steady since the PPIC’s December poll, but backing for Porter and former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra has declined. This dip in support for Porter coincides with the release of videos showing her using harsh language towards an aide and a reporter, though she has since expressed remorse for her behavior.
Political science professor Thad Kousser of UC San Diego notes that none of the candidates are widely recognized household names. He suggests that Porter and Swalwell benefit from their media presence, while Steyer’s campaign is fueled by substantial advertising spending. Kousser also points to a broader trend of diminished political memory among California voters, stating, “The uncompetitiveness of California politics has…left people with very little political memory of even folks who held statewide political office.”
The next major checkpoint in the race is the June primary election. As the campaign progresses, voters will be closely watching how candidates address the state’s pressing issues, particularly affordability, and whether any of them can break through the crowded field to emerge as clear frontrunners.
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