California voters will decide in November who succeeds Gavin Newsom, the state’s highest-profile governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger returned to Hollywood, even as President Trump’s political activity dominates national headlines.
A Crowded Field With No Clear Front-Runner
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The race to lead the Golden State features a diverse, but largely uninspiring, roster of candidates.
- A total of 12 major candidates are vying for the governorship.
- Experts admit they have no clear prediction for the outcome of the June 2 primary.
- Voters may be looking for a leader focused on state issues rather than national politics.
- The candidates largely agree on broad policy goals, making differentiation difficult.
Unfortunately for those hoping for a compelling contest, the current crop of contenders is, shall we say, less than enthralling. In alphabetical order, the major candidates are Xavier Becerra, Chad Bianco, Ian Calderon, Steve Hilton, Matt Mahan, Katie Porter, John Slavet, Tom Steyer, Eric Swalwell, Tony Thurmond, Antonio Villaraigosa and Betty Yee.
Armed with that knowledge, you can now go out and win yourself a few bar bets by asking someone to name even two of those running.
Meanwhile, political observers Mark Z. Barabak and Anita Chabria have surveyed the field, weighed the odds, and concluded they have absolutely no clue what will happen in the June 2 primary, much less who’ll take the oath of office next January.
The Pothole Problem and National Distractions
Chabria: Mark, I struggle to muster any interest in this race, even as a professional. National events are so all-consuming and fast-moving that it’s hard to worry about potholes. I appreciate that our White House-contending governor is fighting the big fight, but remind me again, what’s a governor supposed to do?
Barabak: End homelessness. Elevate our public schools. Make housing and college tuition affordable. Eliminate crime. End disease and poverty. Put a chicken in every pot. Make pigs fly and celestial angels sing. Seriously, there’s a large gap between what voters want and what a governor can realistically deliver. But meaningful improvement in even a few of those areas would be a victory.
Broadly speaking, my sense when talking to voters is they want our next governor to push back on Trump and his most egregious excesses, but not as a means of raising their national profile. And not to the exclusion of bettering their lives by addressing issues like housing and higher education, and, yes, fixing potholes.
A Need for Substance Beyond Partisan Rhetoric
Chabria: All that is fair enough. As a mother of two teens, I’d especially like to see our university system be more affordable and accessible. The new governor can’t just chew gum and walk; she or he must be able to eat a full lunch while running.
But so far, candidates haven’t had their policy positions break through to a big audience, and many share similar positions. Let’s look at the bits of daylight that separate them, Republicans aside, because there aren’t canyon-size differences among the many candidates.
San José Mayor Matt Mahan, the newest entry in the race, is attempting to position himself as a “can’t-we-all-just-get-along” centrist. How do you think that will go over with voters?
Barabak: You’re having me tiptoe uncomfortably close to the prediction zone, which I assiduously avoid. I think there is at least a potential for Mahan to tap into a desire among voters to lower the hostilities and ease up on our constant partisan war-footing.
You might not know it if you marinate in social media, but there are a great many people working two or even three jobs, worrying about paying their bills, and caring for elderly parents. They’re less captivated by the latest snappy clap-back on TikTok than looking for help dealing with the challenges they face.
Katie Porter said something striking when we recently sat down for a conversation in San Francisco. She can denigrate Trump with the best of them, but she said, “I am very leery of anyone who does not acknowledge that we had problems and policy challenges long before Donald Trump raised his orange head on the political horizon.”
California’s homelessness and affordability crises were years in the making, she noted, and need to be addressed as such.
I heard Antonio Villaraigosa suggest something similar in last week’s gubernatorial debate, when the former Los Angeles mayor noted the state has spent billions of dollars trying to drastically reduce homelessness with, at best, middling results. “We cannot be afraid to look in the mirror,” he said.
Beyond Trump: Protecting California’s Values
Chabria: Certainly potholes and high electricity bills existed before Trump. But if the midterms don’t favor Democrats, the next governor will probably face a generational challenge to protect the civil rights of residents of this diverse state. It’s not about liking or disliking Trump, but ensuring that our governor has a plan if attacks on immigrants, the LGBTQ+ community and citizens in general grow worse.
I do think this will matter to voters — but I agree with you that candidates can’t simply rage against Trump. They have to offer some substance.
Porter, Swalwell and Becerra, who have the most national experience, haven’t done much other than to commit to the fight. Steyer and Thurmond want to abolish ICE, which a governor couldn’t do. Mahan has said focusing on state policy is the best offense.
I don’t think this has to be a charisma-driven vision, which is what Newsom has so effectively offered. But it needs to bring resoluteness in a time of fear, which none of the candidates have been able to project so far.
The Search for a Pragmatic Leader
Barabak: The criticism of this collective field is that it’s terminally boring, as if we’re looking to elect a stand-up comic. I mean, this is the home of Hollywood! Isn’t it the birthright of every California citizen to be endlessly entertained?
Voters elected Ronald Reagan and Arnold Schwarzenegger as governor — that’s two movie stars in the state’s 175-year history — and, from the way the state is often perceived, you’d think celebrity megawattage is a prerequisite for a chief executive.
But if you look back, California has seen a lot more George Deukmejian, Pete Wilson and Gray Davis types, which is to say bland-persona governors whom no one would mistake for box-office gold.
It seems no coincidence that Schwarzenegger, who arrived as a political novelty, was replaced by Jerry Brown, who was as politically tried-and-true as they come. That political pendulum never stops swinging.
Which suggests voters will be looking for someone less like our gallivanting governor and someone more inclined to keep their head down in Sacramento and focus on the state and its needs.
Who will that be? I wouldn’t wager a nickel trying to guess. Would you care to?
Chabria: I certainly don’t care to predict, but I’ll say this: We may not need or get another Terminator. But one of these candidates needs to put some pepper flakes in the paste if they want to break out of the pack.
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