2024-09-12 16:39:29
“Luys” Foundation analyzed the socio-economic developments of the RA economy in 2023. in January-November.
Այսպես՝
The growth rate of economic activity has become quite volatile in recent months and is often driven by one-off and short-term factors. Taking into account the gradually smaller contribution of the factors providing high growth of the previous year to the TAC, the growth rate of the latter is gradually slowing down. However, new developments took place in November, as a result of which the TAC increased sharply, reaching 11.2% from 6.0% in the previous month. The new developments refer to the 13.7 times growth recorded by the type of jewelry manufacturing activity.
Despite the sharp acceleration in the industry’s growth rate, developments in the sector remain worrisome. The reason mainly lies in the fact that the high growth was ensured by the 13.7 times growth recorded by the type of jewelry production activity, while such areas important for the RA industry, such as the production of food, beverages, clothes, continue to decline. In this direction, exchange rate appreciation is often mentioned as a possible reason for the decline of sub-sectors. However, in parallel with the latter, it is also necessary to implement state support programs for the sector, including solving logistical problems, which will at least slow down the rate of decline.
Capital expenditure of the state budget will be underperformed this year as well. According to the results of January-November, only 340.6 billion drams of capital expenditures (expenditure on non-financial assets) were realized, which is even smaller than the January-September plan of 387.9 billion drams (and according to the revised plan, 414.8 billion drams). The annual plan is 558.0 billion drams, which is quite high considering the actual indicators, which means that a significant underperformance will be recorded for the year.
The net inflow of money transferred from abroad to RA continues to be at a low level compared to the previous year, mainly as a result of the increase in outflow. 2023 in October, the net inflow of money transferred to Armenia through the banking system (the difference between inflow and outflow) amounted to 125 million USD, significantly lower than the indicators of the beginning of the year and the last months of the previous year. The net amount of money transferred to RA in January-October is also quite low compared to the same period last year, which is mainly due to the increase in the outflow of foreign currency funds from RA.
The full analysis is available at the following link