Mediterranean France Braces for Prolonged Period of Wet Weather
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A series of low-pressure systems are set to bring sustained rainfall to mediterranean France, especially impacting the Cévennes region and departments of Hérault and Gard, beginning monday, December 16th. While flooding is not currently anticipated, residents should prepare for several days of unsettled conditions and unusually mild temperatures.
Weekend Sunshine Gives Way to Approaching Storms
The weekend will offer a brief respite from the impending wet weather. This Saturday, December 14th, sunshine is expected to spread across the lower Rhône valley, Gard, and Lozère, gradually extending to Hérault, Aude, and Roussillon. Temperatures under the clear skies are forecast to reach 15-16°C on the plains, with localized highs of 17°C. Sunday, December 15th, will begin with sunshine, though cloud cover will increase throughout the day, except in Lozère, north of the Lot river, which will maintain more sustainable sunny conditions.
Though, this tranquility is short-lived. A small cold drop of low pressure currently circulating near Morocco is approaching Spain and will be absorbed into a larger low-pressure zone developing over the Atlantic. This confluence of weather systems will drive a southeastward flow, bringing increased precipitation to the Mediterranean regions.
Monday Marks the Start of a Multi-Day Rainfall Event
The first rains are anticipated during the night from Sunday to Monday along the relief areas between Espinouse, Caroux, larzac, and the Cévennes. These showers will sporadically affect the plains of Gard and Hérault, as well as the Côte Vermeille / Salanque / Audois coastline. “The dynamism gradually increases on Monday,” according to meteorological analysis, with regular rainfall expected on the relief areas and more irregular showers on the interior plains of Hérault and West Gard. The East Gard (Rhône valley) will likely remain spared until the afternoon or evening.
By Monday evening and night, rainfall will intensify, particularly from Hérault to Gard. The flow, curved to the southeast, will expose the department of Hérault and the Cévennes to the heaviest precipitation.
Cévennes Region Faces Highest Accumulations
The heaviest rainfall is expected to persist through Tuesday, December 17th, across the relief areas and much of Hérault. While precipitation near the seaside will be weak and intermittent, it will become more regular further inland.These rains will also extend towards gard and southern Lozère/Ardèche, with minimal impact on the western inland areas of Aude and Roussillon.
Over the entire episode, accumulations on the relief areas are forecast to reach 70-100 mm, with localized totals of 120-150 mm over a 48-hour period. While rivers in the Cévennes will be running high, authorities have reassured the public that there is currently no risk of flooding. Accumulations on the plains will be significantly lower, ranging from minimal amounts in West Aude and Roussillon to 15-20 mm near the Rhône in Gard, increasing to 40-50 mm on the foothills of the Cévennes. Hérault is expected to see 20 mm near the seaside, 30-40 mm on the plains, and 50-70 mm on the foothills.
Brief Respite Followed by Further Disturbances
A temporary increase in atmospheric pressure will bring calmer weather on Thursday, December 19th. However, this break will be brief. New depressions approaching from the Atlantic at the end of next week are expected to trigger another active disturbance around the Mediterranean. Temperatures throughout this period will remain abnormally high for the season.
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