Chevron’s chief executive warned that airline fares will rise and flights will grow scarcer in the coming weeks as the Strait of Hormuz standoff tightens jet fuel supplies worldwide.
Mike Wirth told CBS News’ “Face the Nation” that aviation is “clearly an area where it’s going to probably get worse over the next few weeks,” citing jet fuel tightening in Europe and Asia that is already flowing through to ticket prices. He noted that airlines have begun adjusting flight schedules and increasing bag check fees in response to the crisis, which began with the war in Iran on Feb. 28.
In North America, jet fuel prices have surged more than 80% compared to this time last year, according to the International Air Transport Association, while the average U.S. Gasoline price reached $4.03 per gallon on Thursday — nearly a dollar higher than a year ago. Diesel, used by trucks, boats and trains, climbed to $5.47 per gallon, rising faster than regular gasoline.
Wirth said U.S.-based carriers are slightly better positioned than European airlines because the United States produces its own jet fuel, whereas Europe relies heavily on imports. He predicted further route optimization as airlines respond to price pressure and market tightness, resulting in fuller planes and fewer available flights.
The International Energy Agency’s chief, Fatih Birol, told CNBC that Europe may struggle to meet surging summer jet fuel demand as Middle East refineries — which normally supply about 75% of the continent’s jet fuel — have seen production drop to nearly zero. Birol warned that Europe could run out of jet fuel in six weeks if alternative sources are not secured, calling the situation “the biggest energy security threat in history.”
Jet fuel demand in August is typically about 40% higher than in March, Birol said, increasing the strain as peak travel season approaches. European carriers are more exposed than U.S. Counterparts due to their reliance on imported fuel, and some airlines, including Lufthansa and SAS, have already begun reducing flights.
Lufthansa Group announced it is cutting 20,000 short-haul flights across its network through October, a move expected to save 40,000 metric tons of jet fuel and eliminate unprofitable routes. The airline said the cuts are being made days or weeks in advance, giving travelers more time to adjust than with typical weather-related disruptions.
Jet fuel prices in Europe increased 103% by the end of March compared to the prior month, according to IATA, pushing airlines toward operating losses given their typical single-digit margins and fuel costs representing 20% to 40% of revenue. Bernstein’s Alex Irving said higher ticket fares are necessary for profitability but risk alienating customers, forcing airlines to cut capacity to support price increases.
The timing amplifies the impact, as summer travel demand ramps up and major events like the World Cup add strain to airports. Eric Napoli of AirHelp noted that fuel-related cancellations are generally not last-minute, allowing passengers more time to rebook or seek refunds.
Passenger protections vary widely by region. In the U.S., airlines must refund passengers who choose not to travel after a cancellation, regardless of the reason, though they may offer travel credits instead. Europe has some of the strongest protections, including compensation in certain cases, applying to flights departing from EU airports or EU-based carriers entering the bloc. The Montreal Convention governs liability across more than 140 countries, while the U.K. Maintains a similar framework to the EU. The U.S. And Canada offer more limited protections.
Air connectivity generates 851 billion euros (nearly $1 trillion) in GDP for European economies and supports 14 million jobs, according to ACI Europe, underscoring the economic stakes of prolonged fuel shortages.
Will my flight be canceled with little notice?
No, fuel-related flight cuts are typically being made days or weeks in advance, unlike weather-related disruptions which often trigger last-minute cancellations.
Am I entitled to a refund if my flight is canceled due to jet fuel shortages?
In the U.S., yes — if you choose not to travel after a cancellation, the airline must refund you regardless of the reason, though they may offer travel credits instead.
Are passenger rights the same if I’m flying on a non-U.S. Carrier?
No, protections vary widely by region; Europe and the U.K. Offer stronger compensation rules, while the U.S. And Canada provide more limited baseline options like refunds or rebooking.
