A childhood rite of passage in the UK-chickenpox-may soon be a thing of the past,with experts predicting herd immunity could be achieved within the next decade.
A new chickenpox vaccination program is rolling out across the United Kingdom, offered alongside the existing MMR (measles, mumps, adn rubella) jab in a combined immunization called MMRV.
Dr. Hannah Emmett, a consultant epidemiologist at the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), stated that data from modeling studies and experiences in othre countries where the vaccine has been implemented suggest routine chickenpox infections could be largely eliminated.
High Vaccine Efficacy and Projected impact
The two-dose MMRV schedule being implemented in the UK is expected to be around 97 percent effective in preventing chickenpox in children.
- The new MMRV vaccine combines protection against chickenpox with the existing MMR vaccine.
- Modeling suggests a 90 percent reduction in chickenpox cases within five years of the program’s launch.
- A 95 percent reduction in cases is anticipated after a decade of widespread vaccination.
- Currently, about half of children contract chickenpox by age five, and 90 percent by age ten.
- Lower vaccine uptake rates pose a threat to achieving herd immunity.
“We have evidence that a two-dose schedule-that’s what we’re implementing in the UK-woudl offer around 97 per cent effectiveness for children. That’s a really high level of effectiveness,” Dr. Emmett said.
“We have modelling studies that we did in the UK that informed the decision to bring in this program and those showed that we’d expect to see around a 90 per cent reduction in cases of chickenpox at five years into the programme and around 95 per cent reduction a decade into the programme,” she added.
Vulnerability and Wider Benefits
While chickenpox is often mild, it can be severe for some, especially babies, adults, and people with weakened immune systems. The vaccine program is expected to reduce hospitalizations and complications associated with the virus.
“We are looking at the 90 to 93 per cent [vaccine uptake] mark … to meet that modelling estimate. We have seen a year-on-year decline in vaccine uptake in the UK,” Emmett added.
Uptake of the MMR vaccination has fallen to its lowest level in 15 years, possibly endangering herd immunity. The UKHSA reported that nearly one in five children starting primary school last year were not fully protected against several serious diseases.
Only 83.7 percent of five-year-olds are fully protected with both doses of the MMR jab, a drop from previous years. While 91.4 percent of babies received the six-in-one vaccine in 2024-25, this remains below the 95 percent target recommended by the World Health organisation for herd immunity.
“I think this is a really positive moment to remind parents of the vaccine offer and there were catch-up programmes for this,” Emmett said. “It recharges some interest in vaccination and gets people booking thier appointments when they’re offered.”
Children born on or after January 1 last year will be offered two doses of the MMRV vaccine at 12 and 18 months.Children born between July 1, 2024, and December 31, 2024, will be offered two doses, one at 18 months and a second at three years and four months.
