Unheard of for six decades: China, the most populous country in the world, where one-sixth of the planet’s inhabitants live, saw its population decline in 2022.
The Chinese were once known for their large families. The population has thus doubled since the 1960s, to exceed 1.4 billion today. But last year, the number of births was only 9.56 million in mainland China, announced Tuesday, January 17, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). At the same time, 10.41 million deaths have been recorded. The combination of the two phenomena produced a population decline of 850,000 people.
This fall promises to be lasting, perhaps until the end of the century, according to demographers, which will severely affect the economy and the pension system. India should dethrone China this year as the country with the most inhabitants, had already announced the United Nations (UN).
A paradoxical decline
This is a first since 1960-1961, when a famine, which began in 1959, claimed tens of millions of lives following errors in the economic policy of the “Great Leap Forward”. Paradoxically, this decline occurs despite the relaxation of the birth control policy in recent years. Ten years ago, the Chinese were only allowed to have one child. Since 2021, they can have three.
This fall can be explained by the increase in the cost of living in China, just like that of the education of a child. The higher level of education of women also delays pregnancies.
“There is also the habit now of having small families, due to the one-child policy in force for decades”, told Agence France-Presse (AFP) Xiujian Peng, a researcher specializing in Chinese demography at the University of Victoria (Australia). The desire to have a child is also less strong among the younger generations.
Independent demographer He Yafu also points to AFP “the decline in the number of women of childbearing age, which fell by five million per year between 2016 and 2021”.
A crashing fertility rate
In 2019, the UN still believed that China would not reach its peak population until 2031-2032. But since then, the fertility rate has collapsed to 1.15 children per woman in 2021, far behind the generation renewal threshold (2.1). In France, it was 1.8 in 2020.
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“The decline and aging of the population (…) will have a profound impact on the Chinese economy, from today to 2100”prévient Xiujian Peng. “The decline in the active population is synonymous with higher labor costs” and that “will affect China’s competitiveness in the global market”she points out.
According to the projections of his team, without reform of the pension system, the payment of pensions could represent 20% of GDP in 2100 – against 4% in 2020. “The pressure on assets to provide care for the elderly will be increasing”He Yafu warned.
Many local authorities have launched measures to encourage couples to procreate. The metropolis of Shenzhen (south) has been offering a birth bonus and allowances paid until the child is three years old. A couple welcoming their first baby will automatically receive 3,000 yuan (410 euros), or even 10,000 yuan (1,370 euros) if it is the third. In total, a family with three children will receive 37,500 yuan (5,150 euros) in bonuses and allowances.
The province of Shandong (east) offers 158 days of maternity leave (60 more than the national standard), from the first child. The metropolis of Changsha (center), which limits housing purchases to curb speculation, allows couples with two or three children to buy an additional apartment.
“Recreating a true culture of the birth rate”
But nothing says that these measures will be sufficient to revive procreation. “Above all, we should [que le gouvernement] clearly affirms that there is no longer any limit to births, in order to recreate a true culture of the birth rate”says He Yafu.
“A comprehensive set of measures covering childbirth, parenthood and upbringing is needed to reduce the cost of raising a child”estime Xiujian Peng.
The Chinese population could decline each year by 1.1% on average, according to a study by the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, the data of which was transmitted to AFP. China could have only 587 million inhabitants in 2100, less than half of today, according to the most pessimistic projections of these demographers.