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The specter of societal collapse looms large in the 21st century, fueled by anxieties over inequality, pandemics, and rapid technological shifts. A new book, Goliath’s Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse, doesn’t dismiss these fears, but reframes them by demonstrating that collapse is not a singular event, but a recurring pattern throughout human history – and one that can, potentially, be navigated.
Echoes of the Past: Apocalypticism Through the Ages
Throughout history, periods of intense upheaval have consistently sparked apocalyptic beliefs. In the Middle Ages, prophecies of global collapse were widespread across Europe, arising from conditions ripe for such anxieties: population growth, the rise of industry, increasing inequality, and devastating natural disasters and plagues. As historian Norman Cohn observed, these conditions fostered “messianic movements of the poor,” driven by “a collective sense of impotence and anxiety and envy” that manifested as a desire to overthrow the established order.
Today, many of those same conditions are present. Scholars and political figures alike are warning of potential collapse, with estimates ranging from a one-in-six chance of human extinction this century, according to philosopher Toby Ord, to a 49 percent chance of “doomsday” by 2050, as argued by author Jared Diamond. This pervasive sense of unease is reflected in political movements, with some commentators identifying an apocalyptic impulse in the rise of the MAGA movement and in rhetoric surrounding figures like Peter Thiel and Donald Trump. As British writer Dorian Lynskey notes, apocalyptic angst has become “a constant,” with “all flow and no ebb.”
Goliath’s Curse: Learning from 5,000 Years of Collapse
Luke Kemp, a researcher at the University of Cambridge Center for the Study of Existential Risk, addresses this moment in Goliath’s Curse not by dismissing the possibility of collapse, but by examining its historical precedents. Surveying 5,000 years of civilization, Kemp identifies commonalities among past collapses, arguing they represent both learning opportunities and pivotal moments in human history – moments that have, in some instances, been surprisingly productive.
kemp contends that “crises can be good for you,” as widespread devastation creates opportunities for rebuilding.He points out that the destruction of wealth – temples, palaces, and estates – disproportionately impacts the rich. While calamities like disease and famine inflict the greatest harm on the poor, survivors frequently enough gain “more bargaining power with bosses and landlords” due to a reduced labor pool. For example, following the Late Bronze Age collapse, those who survived experienced improvements in health and stature, and those who lived through the Black Death found themselves with access to “twice as much of everything, from ships to land to grain.”
A Hopeful, Though Imperfect, History
While the evidence supporting these claims is mixed – skeletal remains suggest increased height after the Bronze Age collapse, but the Black Death’s impact on wealth distribution is debated – Kemp offers a hopeful outlook on collapse. He suggests that even amidst devastation,opportunities for positive change emerge.
Though, Kemp also warns against complacency. He identifies a “new Silicon Goliath” composed of mass-surveillance technology, AI, and data, and argues that citizens must resist its dominance. Kemp proposes concrete steps, such as rejecting for-profit AI models in favor of decentralized alternatives and ensuring fair compensation for intellectual property used in AI training. He advocates for refusing employment with “agents of doom” – fossil fuel companies, arms manufacturers, and artificial-general-intelligence labs – and encourages participation in unions and democratic movements. “Every person who doesn’t go to work for the agents of doom…is another stone flung at Goliath, and each crack in its skull is a doorway to freedom.”
In a world characterized by increasing inequality, undemocratic trends, and potential catastrophe, Kemp’s book offers a vital invitation to imagine a better future and to believe that avoiding the worst outcomes is still within our grasp.
