Weather experts at the World Meteorological Organization have warned that the world should be prepared for “more intense heatwaves” as a result of climate change. The organization notes that there is a direct link between extreme heat waves occurring across the globe and global warming.
Meanwhile, the potential release of deadly pathogens from centuries-old Arctic permafrost is also being flagged as the latest threat stemming from global climate change. The release of these pathogens has seized the attention of federal government scientists, medical professionals, and Pentagon officials. Pathogens, which are disease-causing organisms, have been trapped for centuries in the frozen ground across the Arctic. Climate change, particularly in temperatures two to four times higher than the rest of the world, is causing this permafrost to thaw.
This hazard is heightened due to the geopolitical pull of the Arctic, which has opened sea lanes due to global warming, leading to increased competition from U.S. adversaries like China and Russia. This has resulted in more troops and warplanes being sent to Alaska by the Pentagon. Permafrost committees in the region have noted that it is home to a variety of bacterial, fungal, and viral pathogens, which, upon thaw, would pose risks to national security and the health of military personnel.
Experts note that we know little about the impacts these potential unleashed microbes could have on humans, animals, and plants. The U.S. Northern Command, the Pentagon’s headquarters for protecting America from threats, has acknowledged the potential threat and is working to enhance public understanding of the hazards posed by melting ice and permafrost.
The potential for the pathogens unlocked from the ice to sicken troops has drawn researchers from across the government. The Army Corps of Engineers operates a research tunnel dug into permafrost just outside Fairbanks, which has evidence of the work of microbes. While the Pentagon is deeply invested in understanding how pathogens could affect troops operating in the Arctic, there is a research gap in understanding the full scope of the issue.
It’s clear that the permafrost has been stable for up to 1,000 years, and what it could release has become a key topic for experts. There is discussion surrounding the types of harmful microbes that exist, how they could affect humans and plants, and how they might survive freeze-thaw cycles. A further complication comes from the fact that permafrost is not uniform, and the faster thawing areas need to be identified and mapped for risks.
While there have been reports such as an evidence of thawing carcass of an animal releasing deadly anthrax, experts like Jill Brandenberger, climate security research lead at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, emphasize that the likelihood of a new pathogen causing an epidemic is low. However, they stress the need to focus on technical scientific gaps and conduct further research to fully understand the true extent of the potential threat of unleashed pathogens.
In essence, action needs to be taken to understand what’s out there, as it is very likely that a pathogen could end up infecting a human, animal, or plant. Experts advise not to get too carried away with speculation about a potential “zombie bug” or “next COVID-19” but to focus on understanding the technical gaps in this area of science.