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Climate change threatens tea growing in Kenya. The “green gold” is one of the main sources of foreign exchange for the country, but struggles to maintain its profitability.
Three million Kenyans currently live from tea cultivation. But how many will there be in 20 years? Rising temperatures, irregular rainfall, drought… Several studies highlight the extent to which climatic shocks are a threat to the tea ecosystem in Kenya. Projections suggest an average temperature increase of 2.5°C in the country between 2000 and 2050. This will result in a significant decrease in areas suitable for tea cultivation.
A loss of 25% on average by 2050 for areas with optimal growing conditions and 40% for growing areas considered average. According to these projections, Kenya, currently the world’s largest producer of black tea, will also be harder hit than its big rivals such as China or Sri Lanka.
In search of more profitable tea bushes
The consequences of these disruptions are already being felt. A survey by the World Food Program (WFP) already confirmed yield declines in certain regions last year. This decline threatens the livelihoods of millions of workers. The WFP estimates that a 30% drop in production in Kenya would drop nearly half of the households that live from tea growing below the poverty line.
Kenya is therefore looking for alternatives, and is investing in the search for tea tree species with better yields and more likely to tolerate climate change. This is the case, for example, with purple tea. A variety developed in 2011 by Kenyan researchers. Sold twice as much, praised for its health benefits, more resistant and intended for an elite clientele. Other producers simply decide to turn away from tea cultivation or diversify by planting avocado trees or sugar cane.