Lions Playoff Hopes Hang in the Balance After Bears’ Dramatic Victory
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The Detroit Lions’ path to the NFL playoffs became significantly more challenging following the Chicago Bears’ overtime win against the Green Bay Packers on Saturday, December 20. While a simple win-out scenario is no longer viable, the Lions still have a chance to reach the postseason, but it hinges on outcomes beyond their own control.
The Bears’ victory effectively closed the door on the Lions securing a playoff berth solely through their remaining three games. Now, Detroit’s playoff fate relies on losses from the Bears, Packers, or San Francisco 49ers. A division title in the NFC North remains a long shot, but not entirely out of reach.
Several teams have already secured their place in the playoffs. The Seattle Seahawks (12-3) and Los Angeles Rams (11-4) have clinched spots, while the Philadelphia Eagles (10-5) have won the NFC East. The NFC South will be decided between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers, both currently holding a 7-7 record.
The Lions face the Pittsburgh Steelers at 4:25 p.m. today, a crucial game with playoff implications. Playoff probabilities, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, are fluctuating throughout the day.
49ers Poised for Postseason Run
Record: 10-4
Playoff Odds: 98%
Schedule: at Colts, vs. Bears, vs. Seahawks
The San Francisco 49ers are in a commanding position, needing just one win in their final three games – today at the Indianapolis Colts, and at home against the Bears and Seahawks – to guarantee a playoff berth. The 49ers currently hold all tiebreakers over the Lions based on conference record, meaning Detroit would need a complete collapse from San Francisco to surpass them for a wild-card spot.
The 49ers can clinch a playoff spot today with a win against the Colts, a Lions loss, or even a tie between the two teams. They also have their sights set on winning the NFC West and securing the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs, requiring victories in all three remaining games, including a Week 18 showdown at home against Seattle.
Bears Surge, Control Their Destiny
Record: 11-4
Playoff Odds: 94%
Schedule: at 49ers, vs. Lions
Coach Ben Johnson’s team has demonstrated remarkable resilience, winning seven of their last eight games after a miraculous comeback on Saturday. However, the Bears likely need to defeat the 49ers next week or the Lions in Week 18 to cement their playoff position. A Packers loss would also guarantee them a wild-card spot.
If the Lions win all their remaining games and the Bears finish with an 11-6 record, Detroit would claim the tiebreaker based on head-to-head results. The Bears can clinch a playoff spot with a Lions loss today against Pittsburgh and can secure the NFC North title with a win next week. According to The Athletic’s simulator, Chicago has an 84% chance of winning the division.
Packers Hold Slim Lead in Wild Card Race
Record: 9-5-1
Playoff Odds: 79%
Schedule: vs. Ravens, at Vikings
The Packers currently occupy the NFC’s final wild-card spot and need to win at least one, and potentially both, of their remaining games against the Baltimore Ravens and Minnesota Vikings to secure their place in the playoffs.
The Packers hold tiebreakers over the Lions due to their season series sweep, though this advantage may be less critical given Green Bay’s tie. The only scenario where the Lions advance ahead of the Packers is by finishing with a superior record. If both teams win out and the Bears falter, Green Bay would win the division at 11-5-1, edging out both the 11-6 Lions and Bears. The Athletic’s simulator gives Green Bay an 8% chance of winning the division.
A concern for the Packers is the status of quarterback Jordan Love, who left the Bears game with a brain injury. Backup Malik Willis performed admirably in his absence, but Love’s availability for the upcoming game against the Ravens is uncertain. The Packers and Ravens will play next Saturday, December 27, leaving Love with limited recovery time.
Lions Face Uphill Battle
Record: 8-6
Playoff Odds: 28%
Schedule: vs. Steelers, at Vikings, at Bears
The Lions’ playoff hopes are precarious. A win in all three remaining games will only result in a playoff berth if one of the following occurs: the Bears lose next week at San Francisco; the Packers lose at least one of their final two games; or the 49ers lose all three of their remaining contests.
A 2-1 finish for the Lions would require the Packers to also lose both of their remaining games. The Lions cannot make the playoffs with a 1-2 record down the stretch, and a loss to the Steelers today would significantly jeopardize their chances of even being in contention next week.
Despite the long odds, the Lions could still win the NFC North and secure a home playoff game at Ford Field (likely as the No. 3 seed) if they win out, the Bears lose to the 49ers, and the Packers lose at least once in the next two weeks. The Athletic’s simulator gives this scenario an 8% probability.
Dave Birkett covers the Lions for the Detroit Free Press. Contact him at [email protected]. Follow him on Bluesky, X and Instagram at @davebirkett.
