CHICAGO, July 23, 2025 — College basketball coaches are pouring over rosters this summer, grappling with unprecedented player movement. With over 2,500 players entering the transfer portal this spring, keeping key talent is a prime strategy for building sustained winners.
Teams that retain continuity at lead guard and center are statistically more likely to rank among the nation’s elite.
- Purdue leads the pack, returning nearly 70% of its minutes from last season’s 24-win team, including its top three players.
- Continuity at lead guard and the center position has been a strong indicator of top-30 finishes for years.
- Big men and dynamic lead guards are commanding lucrative deals in the NIL era, influencing roster construction.
- Several teams, including Oregon, Wisconsin, and San Diego State, are positioned for success due to strong retention at key positions.
- USC and Duke are undergoing significant roster overhauls, betting on new talent to propel them forward.
Is keeping your star point guard and dominant center the secret to a top-30 finish in college basketball? Data suggests a strong correlation. Twenty-one teams that maintained continuity at both the lead guard and big man positions finished in the top 30 of kenpom.com rankings last season. This trend held steady in prior years, with 24 of the top 30 teams in 2024 and 23 in 2023 boasting this crucial continuity.
Think of it like building a house: you need a solid foundation. In basketball, that means having a reliable floor general and a formidable presence in the paint. Teams like Florida, Alabama, Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, and Auburn have all benefited from this strategic roster retention.
The value of these positions is amplified in today’s game. Skilled big men are essential for both defensive anchors and offensive versatility, offering critical advantages. Similarly, a dynamic lead guard is the engine for most offenses, creating opportunities and dictating tempo. While retaining sharpshooters is valuable, these primary playmakers often provide the spark that elevates the entire team.
The transfer portal era has made keeping these linchpins more challenging but also more crucial. It’s a tough climb to build a championship contender from scratch when so many pieces are in flux.
Following the Money in Player Retention
The transfer portal isn’t just about player movement; it’s also a marketplace where talent commands top dollar. Big men, in particular, have seen their value skyrocket. Texas Tech reportedly secured All-American JT Toppin with a $4 million deal to keep him from the NBA draft for his sophomore season. UAB transfer Yaxel Lendeborg, a top-ranked portal player, is set to earn around $3 million at Michigan.
Dynamic lead guards are also in high demand. Players like UCLA’s Donovan Dent, BYU’s Rob Wright, and Kansas’ Darryn Peterson have secured significant NIL deals. As this salary-cap-like era takes hold, expect teams to continue investing heavily in guards and two-way big men. While the NBA might prioritize versatile wings, college basketball budgets are often focused on securing these positional pillars.
Ten Takeaways for the 2025-26 Season
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Oregon Strong at Top: Despite missing some wing targets, Oregon secured lead guard Jackson Shelstad and big man Nate Bittle. This core should ensure a high floor, with a top-30 finish a strong possibility.
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Wisconsin Has Weapons to Surprise: While not returning a high percentage of minutes, Wisconsin retained point guard John Blackwell and forward Nolan Winter. Their transfer portal additions further bolster the roster, making a significant jump plausible.
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San Diego State Runs It Back: The Aztecs return over 61% of their minutes, including future NBA prospects Miles Byrd and Magoon Gwath. After a top-50 finish last year, they are poised for a top-30 ranking, with potential for even more.
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Familiar Faces at Arizona: Arizona maintained continuity by keeping point guard Jaden Bradley and centers Tobe Awaka and Motiejus Krivas. This stability provides a strong base for incoming five-star freshmen Brayden Burries and Koa Peat.
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Texas Tech Returns Strong Duo: Although only returning 27% of its minutes, Texas Tech secured big man JT Toppin and lead guard Christian Anderson. This potent duo forms the backbone of their strategy, with all offseason additions designed to complement them.
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Top Scorers Back at Illinois State: The Redbirds are the only Missouri Valley Conference team to bring back two double-figure scorers in lead guard Johnny Kinziger and center Chase Walker. Retaining them gives Illinois State a strong chance to contend in 2025-26.
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Creighton Has Big Shoes to Fill: Creighton lost key contributors Steven Ashworth, Pop Isaacs, Ryan Kalkbrenner, and Jamiya Neal. While they retained role players, the departure of their offensive and defensive anchors means newcomers will be crucial, potentially leading to initial challenges.
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USC Starting Over: Eric Musselman has completely revamped the USC roster, aiming for defensive improvement and offensive firepower with players like Rodney Rice and Alijah Arenas. This high-risk, high-reward approach aims to emulate successful rebuilds by coaches like Scott Drew and Todd Golden.
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Newcomers Will Help Duke Returners: Duke boasts continuity at lead guard with Caleb Foster and in the frontcourt with Patrick Ngongba and Maliq Brown. Coupled with elite recruits Cam Boozer and Nik Khamenia, the Blue Devils are built for another deep NCAA Tournament run.
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Syracuse Set to Improve: Syracuse has continuity at lead guard with JJ Starling and big man Donnie Freeman. This foundation offers a clear opportunity for the Orange to make a significant leap this season.
