The already strained Colorado River system edged closer to crisis this weekend as negotiators from the seven basin states failed to reach a consensus on water sharing, missing a federal deadline set by the Department of the Interior. The impasse, coming as winter snowpack levels remain critically low, threatens water supplies for 40 million people across the American West and Mexico.
The states – Arizona, California, Nevada, Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, and New Mexico – have been locked in negotiations for years, attempting to navigate a future of dwindling resources amid a decades-long megadrought. The core of the dispute centers on how to allocate cuts to water usage, with the Lower Basin states arguing the Upper Basin must seize on more responsibility for conservation. The Bureau of Reclamation released projections last week showing Lake Powell could reach “dead pool” status – a level where water can no longer flow through Glen Canyon Dam’s hydropower system – as early as this summer if conditions don’t improve.
The Lower Basin states – Arizona, California, and Nevada – have proposed decreasing their allocations by 27%, 10%, and 17% respectively, but insist that significant, mandatory cuts are also needed in the Upper Basin. “We simply cannot take on the task of saving this precious river system on our own,” said Arizona negotiator Tom Buschatzke in a statement. The Upper Basin states, however, maintain their water users are already experiencing cuts due to the natural variability of snowpack, and that the Lower Basin’s historical overuse is the primary driver of the current crisis.
A History of Deadlines and Disagreement
This isn’t the first time a federal deadline has passed without a resolution. A previous deadline was missed in November, and federal officials have repeatedly urged the states to find common ground. The current guidelines for Colorado River operations are set to expire in October, increasing the urgency of the situation. The Bureau of Reclamation published outlines of potential plans in January, and is currently accepting public comment until March 2. Details on submitting comments are available on the Bureau’s website.
Colorado Attorney General Phil Weiser expressed disappointment with the outcome of the latest negotiations, stating that the Lower Basin rejected a revised proposal from the Upper Basin states and “walked away from the table before the deadline.” Colorado’s negotiator, Becky Mitchell, echoed this sentiment, arguing that the Upper Basin’s approach is “aligned with hydrologic reality” and that they are prepared to move forward. “We’re being asked to solve a problem we didn’t create with water we don’t have,” Mitchell said in a statement.
Snowpack and Reservoir Levels Raise Alarm
The lack of progress in negotiations is particularly concerning given the dismal snowpack levels across the Colorado River Basin. As of February 1, snowpack above Lake Powell was at just 47% of the median recorded between 1991 and 2020, according to the National Weather Service’s Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. The forecast center’s latest discussion is available online. This translates to projected water supplies at only 38% of normal, with an estimated inflow of just 2.4 million acre-feet into Lake Powell – significantly less than the 7.5 million acre-feet allocated to the Lower Basin under the 1922 Colorado River Compact.
The Colorado River District, an agency advocating for Western Slope water needs, criticized the Lower Basin states for walking away from discussions as the Bureau of Reclamation released its concerning projections. “With Lake Powell now quickly approaching dead pool, that decision reflects a continued disconnect from hydrologic reality and a clear refusal to confront the core problem: longstanding Lower Basin overuse,” the district said in a statement Monday.
What’s Next for the Colorado River?
With the states unable to reach an agreement, the Bureau of Reclamation is prepared to implement its own plan, a move that is almost certain to trigger legal challenges. Colorado is already preparing for potential litigation, with Attorney General Weiser stating the state will “perform tirelessly to protect our state’s rights and interests under the Law of the Colorado River.”
The governors of the four Upper Basin states – Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, and New Mexico – released a joint statement pledging to continue working towards a solution. “We can and we must rise to this occasion,” they said.
A coalition of conservation groups – including the Environmental Defense Fund, The Nature Conservancy, and Western Resource Advocates – expressed increasing concern over the lack of progress. “We are increasingly concerned that, after more than two years of negotiations, multiple deadlines, and extensive public engagement, the Basin states have still not reached agreement on a Colorado River management framework,” the groups said in a statement.
The immediate future of the Colorado River remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: the stakes are incredibly high. The Bureau of Reclamation is expected to finalize a plan before the start of the next water year on October 1. The coming months will be critical in determining the fate of this vital water resource.
This story will be updated as more information becomes available.
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