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In a context of declining global harvest, Ukrainian maize is the focus of all attention. Without necessarily reassuring.
The planet is expected to produce 50 million tonnes of corn this year less than last year according to the latest forecasts, a decrease of 4%. The volumes produced remain historically very high, and above the five-year average, but this drop should be enough to bring down the stocks available at the end of the campaign, down 26% for Argentina, and 14% for the United States. Hence some tension in the markets. Especially since if the experts expect a drop in Chinese imports, the European Union, there is no doubt, will have to increase its purchases of yellow beans. Because of the drought that raged this summer, European production continues to be revised downward over the months, it could fall by 31%.
What will be the rhythm of the next exports?
The level of European demand will influence future prices, prices which currently reflect the wait-and-see attitude of the markets more than a simple relationship between supply and demand, according to FranceAgriMer, the monitoring unit of the French ministry. of Agriculture. And when we talk about waiting, we think in particular of the unknown Ukrainian.
Since the implementation of the grain corridor at the beginning of August, Ukrainian maize has returned to the world market. But difficult to predict the volume that will manage to leave the country.
Six million tonnes of the new maize crop have been harvested, 27% of what is expected. But no one is betting on what can be picked up in the coming weeks, given the ongoing conflict and the coming winter. Given the high cost of energy used for drying maize, part of the crop may indeed be left standing. But will the maize, which will stay longer than expected in the fields, resist the temperatures of the coming months and what about its sanitary quality?
The advantage of Ukrainian corn: its price
At this point, the Ukrainian harvest is estimated to be down 35% from last year. A figure that remains provisional, which fuels market uncertainty.
For the time being, Ukrainian maize, which has been exported since this summer, is on the rise. It is indeed more competitive than Argentinian, European or even Brazilian maize!
► Read or listen: Blocking Ukrainian corn exports disrupts livestock feed