2024-08-05 17:07:29
► “There are no magic weapons in this war”
Stéphane Audandinternational risk consultant and Reserve Officer
As it stands, the F-16 planes will not change much, because there are so few of them. There is a theoretical plan to deliver several dozen, around 80 apparently, but these are the first deliveries. The exact number has not been stated, but it may be between ten and twenty. If the Ukrainians gave them, it was because they had enough. Another important point, during their presentation (Sunday August 4, by President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, Editor’s note), they were configured for hunting with anti-aircraft missiles. This means that these F-16s will be considered as important to strengthen the air defense of Ukraine, where there are weaknesses, from the front line to deep, where the Russians attack more or less as they want. The interception rate of Russian missiles and drones has dropped because the Ukrainian army no longer has weapons.
These F-16s will not immediately work in more complex plans. The Ukrainian army must succeed in integrating them into the war it is fighting. The F-16 is an aircraft designed with the thinking of NATO in the 1970s and 1980s, in the Western doctrine of war with a great power of air power. But Ukrainians are still seeking their education. Many questions arise for them: do we stay on the ground? How to integrate new features? This intellectual issue is therefore as important and important as technical and technological issues.
Getting the F-16s will not change the nature of the fight or the fire ratio. On the other hand, they can do what is possible to increase the rate of interception of Russian drones and cruise missiles, and therefore to better protect Ukrainian interests, jobs, cities, energy infrastructures, as well as help in the encirclement of Crimea. In a place where the balance of power with Russia is not very favorable, building this air force is an important tool, if it is to be taken out in the long term.
But there are no magic weapons in this war. We always focus on the technology of the time, because our civilization is very technological and we want to tell ourselves that the thing will solve the problem. The only weapon capable of changing everything overnight is nuclear weapons!
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