How will next winter be in terms of viruses and the like?
Epidemiologists and virologists are quite uncertain. The major concern is the possible convergence of various respiratory viruses, such as Covid-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus.
Last year the Coronavirus was the dramatic protagonist of the winter season but the new season, from a health point of view, looks different. The pandemic is in decline and around 80% of the European population, in particular, is vaccinated against the virus, but for this very reason social restrictions have been dangerously relaxed.
The mask was just one of the measures that helped keep the flu virus at bay in the colder months of the past year.
A cocktail of viruses awaits us next winter
This year no one expresses certainties. A momentary coexistence of the three viruses may arise until one of these takes over.
In any case, epidemiologists urge to start the influenza vaccination campaign in risk groups as soon as possible and to continue to pay attention to individual protection.
Before Covid-19, in a traditional winter, respiratory viruses ran their normal course: respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), the cause of bronchitis in young children, filled pediatric intensive care units (ICU) in December, leaving the place to the flu. But with the arrival of the Coronavirus, the entire viral ecosystem has faltered and there is no indicator that can tell what will happen. Respiratory viruses have behaved erratically throughout the pandemic.
Experts, to orient themselves, often look to the countries of the southern cone, which have winter between July and August, but this year everything is much less predictable.
A cocktail of viruses awaits us next winter
The first data suggest that this year too there has not been a high incidence of influenza in the southern countries of the globe.
In the countries of the southern hemisphere the flu virus did not circulate significantly. India is the only country that is having a high flu alert, but they don’t have seasonality there.
The fear of some experts is that after nearly two years of little flu, the immunity acquired against this virus has been lost or weakened.
A study published in the journal Vaccines confirms this concern “After a low-intensity flu epidemic for a mild winter, the next flu epidemics could be more intense and more severe than average, starting 11 days earlier and with 40% in more than one case “.
On the other hand, however, all countries are well equipped against the flu virus. What could happen is that this season’s vaccine (flu vaccines are updated every year from the virus that circulated the previous season) doesn’t match the strains that could be circulating. So the chances of “failure” are greater.
However, all experts agree in urging people to get vaccinated against the flu as soon as possible because, despite everything, the vaccine protects very well against serious diseases.
A cocktail of viruses awaits us next winter
Another virus with anomalous behavior was the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), “the cross of pediatricians” that worries many health professionals, but in any case, the main concerns are still for Covid-19, which is now declining.
But until we have a mass vaccination all over the world, the world will always be at the mercy of a deadly virus and, above all, of its variants.
In conclusion, the experts’ recommendations are three: we must be prepared and strengthen epidemiological surveillance, push vaccination against influenza and maintain measures against Covid-19.