Could covid be part of our lives like flu, becoming endemic? And if so, how long will it take? From Bassetti to Gismondo passing through the ema, here’s what the experts think.
Bassetti
Spain is preparing to manage the pandemic as a flu “and I don’t see big differences between that country and Italy. We must try to change the mind of those who govern us especially in the Ministry of Health with less theory and more practice. Italy too is ready to turn from pandemic to endemic. There are, however, too many laws, little laws, snares and snares, which are complicating our lives in an impressive way. Italy with a change of pace, follow the Spanish model ” . So at time.news Salute Matteo Bassetti, director of the Infectious Diseases Clinic at the San Martino hospital in Genoa. “We have almost 90% of Italians who are vaccinated (82%) or cured of the infection, and in these days with the massive increase in infections, more and more people are also protecting themselves naturally from infection – recalls Bassetti – We are therefore close to herd immunity. We have to finish doing some things that were fine a year ago but are no longer good today: the daily report of the infections that frankly does nothing but make those who read it anxious; it no longer makes sense. dab the asymptomatic let’s focus on those who have the symptoms as we do with the flu; we classify as Covid cases only those who have pneumonia, listening to the doctors; let’s run with the third doses; let’s put the vaccination obligation – suggests the infectivologist – for those he has not yet been immunized because these are the people who crowd the hospitals; but then it is necessary to have a different vision, to give the vaccinated an advantage over the non-immunized by intervening on the length of quarantines “.
Ricciardi
Begin to manage the pandemic with ordinary tools such as the flu? “It is everyone’s wish, but the conditions are not right. The feasibility of such a strategy must be confirmed by scientific evidence that I do not think exists at the moment. It remains wishful thinking for now”. This was explained to time.news Health by Walter Ricciardi, advisor to the Minister of Health Roberto Speranza and professor of Hygiene at the Catholic University of Rome, commenting on the orientation of Spain which is preparing to prepare a plan to exit emergency management. “It is the aspiration that we all share – Ricciardi reiterates – but that must be consolidated through concrete steps and decisions based on science. It is. It is still a serious pandemic disease, with respiratory viruses, with a whole series of unknowns related to the variants that can emerge and that have emerged in an important way in the past year. To achieve this ambition, a series of measures are needed. based on evidence. It is not yet time. “
I pray
“There is a desire for normality, but we are in a transition phase, because we have to pass this night which is a bit long, a night that will include a commitment, let’s say until March. But the various governments want to send a positive message , the same one that we launched with the school. I share the challenge, even if I expect a number of classes in Dad in the near future, but this is the emphasis that is given by politics: we want to overcome the emergency, let’s get ready for a new normality and a coexistence with the virus “. Thus the virologist Fabrizio Pregliasco, professor at the State University of Milan, comments with the time.news Salute. “In some cases they are proclamations – observes the expert – but of approach, also because otherwise the consensus diminishes and there is a risk of depression, so it takes”. As for the United Kingdom, “perhaps they let the oxen out of the barn more than us while we wanted to mitigate. It is clear that letting the oxen out – continues with the Pregliasco metaphor – you have a very fast bell curve with a peak that is reached earlier. By mitigating we lower the curve, but we spread everything over a longer time, but managing to manage everything better “. But what are the numbers that will also allow us to start managing the virus as an endemic? “The values of the white zone – replies the virologist sharply – If we go further, there is still a problematic condition. There are still too many deaths, probably because we have a mix of Omicron and Delta, to be able to manage it as a flu. We are. in this transition phase “.
So is spring the horizon? “It will always depend on the unknown of new variants. However – clarifies the doctor – we will have to consider new aspects of normality. We laughed when we saw oriental tourists with masks – recalls Pregliasco – but now I think it is cleared through customs and we must clear this approach in the future. . We will no longer be able, as unfortunately happened in the past, to fall into underestimation and send the child with some line of fever to school by stuffing him with Tachipirina. In short, it will take more attention – recommends the expert – Let’s start thinking about planning, but it still takes time. The night must pass. “
Gismondo
In the management of Covid-19, in Italy “unfortunately we still live in a hysteria that must end. And above all, this ‘tampon factory’ must end, which is useless and is making us waste so many economic and human resources that could be invested differently”. With this consideration, the microbiologist Maria Rita Gismondo invites us to look instead at Spain, which “according to what its premier declared is preparing a good plan to return to normal life. A model of coexistence with the virus which, as I have been saying for some time, we should have let’s start planning too “, underlines time.news Salute the director of the Laboratory of clinical microbiology, virology and bio-emergency diagnostics of the Sacco hospital in Milan.
If Spain’s intention is to “propose a project to be discussed at EU level for sharing at least in the European area – the expert reasons – I think the time has really come to implement it, because we understand that this virus will remain with us for many years or perhaps forever, and because today we have the means to live with Sars-CoV-2 minimizing the damage as much as possible: weapons like vaccines, above all, but also like the new antiviral drugs “.
Furthermore, considering that “the trend is towards a replacement of the Delta variant with Omicron, very contagious but with a lower pathogenicity now established”, according to Gismondo “we have all the elements to be able to think about managing Covid-19, as explained by the premier Spanish, like a seasonal flu. A disease that certainly should not be underestimated, especially for frail people – he points out – but which is not an emergency “.
Lopalco
“The ordinary management of the pandemic, to be treated as a complex endemic flu, is a point of arrival that we must arrive at soon. Of course it is complicated to do it overnight. And it is impossible in full wave. But as soon as this wave has passed. , in my opinion the direction must be this “. The epidemiologist Pier Luigi Lopalco, professor of hygiene at the University of Salento, says this to time.news Salute, commenting on Spain’s decision to develop a plan to manage the pandemic with ordinary tools, as if it were an endemic flu.
According to Lopalco, therefore, “a progressive approach to this modality is necessary. We must not do it tomorrow, but it should be our strategy. After all, this is what we set ourselves when we began to say that, thanks to vaccination, we would arrive at a peaceful coexistence with the virus. Switching to ordinary means of managing the epidemic is nothing more than this: peaceful coexistence with the virus. And it is a strategy that we have already chosen “.
Knights (Ema)
The spread in Europe of the Omicron variant of Sars-CoV-2 “worries” because, even if it appears to cause a milder disease, it will cause “many hospitalizations. At the same time the fact that the virus is so transmissible means that many people will be This will boost immunity, “adding” a layer “of natural immunity to that provided by vaccination. “We can think that after this wave has passed in Europe and other parts of the world, we will have a strong immunity” of the community, which “could pave the way towards” an endemic scenario, explains Marco Cavaleri, responsible for Ema vaccines. , during a video briefing with the press in connection from Amsterdam, where the agency is based. “Nobody knows when we will get to the end of the tunnel, but we will. We are seeing that we move” towards a scenario where Sars-CoV-2 “becomes more endemic, but we cannot say that we have already achieved that status,” he adds.
The virus, he continues, “still behaves like a pandemic virus and the emergence of Omicron shows this clearly. We must not forget that we are still in a pandemic,” he says soon after. “Nonetheless, with the increase in immunity in the population and with Omicron there will be a lot of natural immunity in addition to that given by vaccination, we will move quickly to a scenario closer to coronavirus endemicity”, concludes Cavaleri.