2023-12-23 22:02:54
The return of great power tensions is probably the most significant of the many changes that have occurred during this time. What was considered the normal state of affairs for a long time in human history appeared to have been overcome once and for all with the collapse of actually existing socialism. The end of history, which was proclaimed around 30 years ago, the idea of a final victory for liberalism and the permanent distribution of a peace dividend to the people, has turned out to be premature.
The world has entered a new period of uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. The beautiful idea that trade between peoples ensures peace has been replaced by the ancient Roman belief: “Si vis pacem para bellum” (If you want peace, prepare for war).
Reason for confidence
This return to old patterns of thinking and acting has significant economic consequences, but this does not in itself mean a departure from the path of economic prosperity. This is a reason for confidence in a time of widespread fear.
The economic boom in the West after the Second World War was accompanied by systemic competition with the East. Furthermore, the first globalization took place in the second half of the 19th century in an era of pronounced rivalry between the leading European powers.
Even in the first globalization, however, the thesis that close economic ties made serious conflicts impossible had proven to be fallacious: the closest economic ties among the great powers at the time were between the German Empire and France – which shortly afterwards were the bitterest opponents in the First World War. Trade alone is not enough; it doesn’t work without the credible ability to defend itself.
Revitalize growth forces
The belief that successful economic development requires securing the external security of a community, even through the use of military means if in doubt, is by no means foreign to liberal and market-economy-minded people. It can already be found in Adam Smith’s “Wealth of Nations” from 1776.
No part of the turning point that Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced after the outbreak of the Russian war against Ukraine is as controversial in Germany as the need to fully restore the Bundeswehr’s long-neglected operational capability. The demonstrative negligence with which previous German governments ignored NATO’s recommendation to spend two percent of economic output on defense is a thing of the past.
However, restoring and ensuring military security will require significant economic resources over a long period of time. This makes an economic policy that overcomes the current state of paralysis and revitalizes growth forces seem all the more important.
This includes resisting the tendency to form economic wagon trains and sticking to the principle of the benefit of the division of labor in the global economy. Because even if global trade alone does not ensure peace, turning away from global trade certainly cannot guarantee peace. The period between the world wars provides the necessary illustrative material for this.
The performance of the West remains unmatched
It is probably not wrong to see the new geopolitical world situation as a challenge from autocratic regimes to liberal democracies suffering from self-doubt. Quite a few other countries are watching this without clearly taking sides. But even if the West’s economic weight in the world is undoubtedly declining, it remains unrivaled in terms of economic performance and innovative strength.
A comment from Peter Carstens Published/Updated: , Recommendations: 17 Gustav Theile Published/Updated: Recommendations: 8 Gerald Braunberger Published/Updated: , Recommendations: 48 Daniel Mohr Published/Updated: , Recommendations: 9
Not every challenger can keep up: Russia’s war against Ukraine can be interpreted as an attempt by a regime to secure the approval of the population in the face of modest economic prospects with a campaign of conquest reminiscent of the imperial past.
The West would like to have a better memory of the foundations of its previous economic successes. A combination of firmness in security policy and an economic policy aimed at making better use of its own potential would be its best contribution to peace on earth.
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