Denmark’s military intelligence service warned on September 24 that Russia could launch a limited military attack against a NATO country in the coming months. According to the Danish defence intelligence service, the threat represents a low but growing risk
as Moscow demonstrates an increased willingness to take risks while under severe battlefield pressure in Ukraine.
Danish Intelligence Warns of Low But Growing Risk of Russian Attack on NATO
The threat assessment was presented at the Commandant’s House at Kastellet in Copenhagen by Danish Minister of Defense Jeppe Bruus, Chief of the Defense Intelligence Service Thomas Ahrenkiel, and Chief of Defense Michael Hyldgaard.
Potential Forms of a Limited Military Strike
Intelligence officials outlined several scenarios for how a limited operation could unfold while Moscow remains engaged in Ukraine. Such actions could include isolated long-range weapon strikes, such as drones or missiles, targeting infrastructure that supports Ukraine.
Officials warned that Russia might attempt to claim these weapons crossed into NATO territory due to Ukrainian electronic warfare, or execute false-flag operations utilizing Ukrainian-made drones. Another possibility cited by intelligence leadership involves deploying a small number of troops into a NATO border area without national insignia, potentially using the pretext of protecting Russian minorities.
Ahrenkiel noted that the objective of such provocations would not be territorial conquest, but rather to test alliance unity and determine whether members would respond collectively under Article 5.
Escalation of Hybrid Warfare Across Europe
Alongside the warning of a limited military incursion, the Danish Defence Intelligence Service expects Moscow to intensify its non-military hybrid campaign against Western nations. These tactics are projected to carry greater consequences than past incidents, potentially involving destructive cyber-attacks that cripple societal functions and sabotage operations carrying a high risk of casualties.
European security investigations have increasingly pointed to Russian involvement in hostile activities across the continent. Incidents include an attempted drone attack on Germany’s Leipzig/Halle Airport, sabotage targeting rail infrastructure, fires at drone factories, and severed undersea cables. Domestically, the Danish Resilience Agency raised its threat level, noting that Russia is likely to attempt destructive cyberattacks against Denmark, while Denmark’s domestic intelligence service warned of sabotage preparations targeting Danish defense companies.
Furthermore, Russian forces have engaged in aggressive encounters in the Baltic Sea region. On September 14, a Russian frigate off the Danish coast fired flares toward a Danish military helicopter deployed to photograph the vessel.
Invasion Risk Remains Highly Unlikely
Despite the heightened risk profile, the intelligence assessment distinguishes a surgical operation from a full-scale invasion. An outright invasion of a NATO member state remains highly unlikely,
though officials stressed it cannot be completely ruled out.
The intelligence agency estimated that Russia would require at least six months of visible military buildup and troop movements to assemble the forces needed for a localized war against a neighboring NATO member. Officials stated that Russia’s actions are driven by battlefield losses, Ukrainian long-range strikes, and economic strain, with Moscow aiming to divert European resources away from supporting Ukraine.