The game looks complicated for the Democrats. As Americans vote Tuesday, November 8 for the midterm elections, which serve among other things to renew part of Congress and elect new governors, the polls give the Republicans the winners, even if the battle for the Senate is announced. harsh.
According to the FiveThirtyEight projection site, the chances of the ruling party looking very bad in the House of Representatives, the equivalent of the French National Assembly. Their Republican opponents would have an 82% chance of winning a majority in the lower house of Congress.
The majority of Joe Biden is already very weak there. And the polls show that the themes of inflation and purchasing power, defended by the right, carry more than fears about the climate and the defense of abortion, causes defended by the Democrats.
The Senate on hold
Even if the Democrats won all 13 polls where they are neck and neck with their opponents, they would only control 213 seats, 5 less than the majority. They would therefore have to thwart all predictions in order to hope to keep control of the House.
The game has never even seemed tight at this level, since the Republicans have been given the winners for several months. The last few days have even seen a widening of their lead in the polls.
However, the situation is a little different in the Senate. In August, September and October 2022, the Democrats were the winners there. Today, the two parties finish neck and neck in the polls, and the Republicans even seem to have a small advantage. There are only two seats that remain truly undecided, in Nevada and Georgia. Held by the Democrats, they could cross to the other side and tip the Senate.
Republicans a priori winners in the federated states
The outgoing majority is all the more threatened in that in certain states such as Arizona and Pennsylvania, where the Democrats are favorites, the competitions remain disputed. Conversely, the Republicans can boast of a good lead in the States where the polls envisage their victory. According to FiveThirtyEight, the odds of winning a majority are 54% for the Grand Old Party.
In addition to Congress, 36 governorships out of 50 are at stake. On this side too, the party in power seems to be off to a bad start. According to the polls, 18 seats will probably go to the Republicans against 15 to the Democrats, 3 remaining extremely undecided.