Democrats lead by 7 to 11 points on the generic ballot as Americans vote in midterm elections that will determine congressional control for the remainder of President Trump’s term in office, with Democrats appearing poised to make gains during an underwater job approval rating for the president and widespread cost-of-living concerns.
Polling shows Democrats up between 7 and 11 points on the generic ballot as voters head to the polls. The outcome will decide whether Democrats can break Republican majorities or whether the GOP can defy political headwinds to hold the House and Senate.
Early Indicator Races in Kentucky and Indiana
President Trump carried Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District by fifteen percentage points in 2024, making it an immediate test of whether voters have soured on Republicans. In that district, Republican Ralph Alvarado faces Democrat Zach Dembo for the seat being vacated by GOP Representative Andy Barr as he runs for the Senate, as NPR reported. The first concrete clues about the national trend will emerge from eastern precincts in Kentucky and Indiana, where polls close at 6 p.m. Eastern time.
Per @DecisionDeskHQ, the 10 most competitive U. S. Senate races next Tuesday. Nine are held by Republicans.https://t.co/VITVor7TjY pic.twitter.com/KF4Kyn18A0
Trump carried Indiana’s 5th District by nearly 17 points in 2024, according to Daily Kos. In neighboring Indiana’s 5th District, Republican Representative Victoria Spartz defends a traditionally safe seat against Democrat J.D. Ford. While forecasters rate the contest lean or likely Republican, the campaign tightened late in the cycle and drew hundreds of thousands of dollars in emergency GOP ad spending.
GOP Redistricting Push and Spending Fuel House Majority Battle
Democrats need a net gain of just three seats to claim the House majority, having held 215 seats after the 2024 election, according to MS NOW. Parties poured resources into the final stretch, with a handful of House races seeing more than $10 million in ad spending during the final seven days alone, data from AdImpact cited by NPR shows.
Florida’s newly redrawn congressional map, designed as part of a mid-decade redistricting push led by President Trump to help Republicans, will test whether GOP gerrymandering efforts deliver or backfire.
Senate Battles Across Red and Purple States
Nine of the top ten Senate battlegrounds sit in red states where turnout among the base will dictate the winner, according to analysis from The Boston Globe. In the Senate, control hinges on whether Democrats can defend key incumbents while picking up seats in historically Republican terrain.
Election Day 2026 arrived with voters casting ballots at stations across the country, such as the Bennett Community Center American Legion 104 in Bennett, Iowa.
Across the nation, 435 congressional contests, 33 Senate races, and 39 gubernatorial elections make up the midterms. In the Senate, Democrats must continue to hold four competitive seats in New Hampshire, Georgia, Michigan, and Minnesota while flipping four states to gain the upper chamber’s majority. According to the Cook Political Report, 81 House seats are classified as competitive.
In Virginia’s 1st Congressional District, Republican Representative Rob Wittman faces Democratic challenger Shannon Taylor. In Virginia’s 2nd District, Republican Representative Jen Kiggans is in a rematch against former Democratic Representative Elaine Luria, after Kiggans defeated Luria in 2022. Virginia’s Supreme Court earlier in the year struck down a proposed congressional redistricting map that would have favored Democrats.
In North Carolina, Roy Cooper faces Republican Michael Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chair.
Will Democrats break Republican majorities or will the GOP hold the House and Senate?