photo: Alex Evers / Eclipse Sportswire
A shift in strategy dramatically altered one bettor’s return on investment in 2025: factoring in rebates and bonuses-something previously excluded from calculations-proved crucial to overall wagering success.
The Power of Perks: Why Ignoring Bonuses is Leaving Money on the Table
Understanding how rebates and bonuses impact ROI, and the importance of disciplined wagering.
Dateline: January 26, 2026
- Previously dismissing rebates and bonuses, a bettor integrated them into ROI calculations for 2025, revealing a substantial impact.
- 1/ST Racing’s XBSelect emerged as the preferred ADW due to its generous rebate program and Betmix integration.
- Kentucky circuits yielded the best results, with an ROI of -2% across the commonwealth, boosted by a triumphant Derby week.
- Avoiding “winner’s tilt” and exercising judiciousness in track and bet selection are key goals for future wagering.
For years, the approach was simple: focus solely on the raw win/loss. But after reevaluating a year of play in 2025, it became clear that ignoring rebates and bonus payouts was a mistake. If a strategy involves targeting specific offers at TwinSpires or leveraging a well-rebated pool through XBSelect, shouldn’t that value be included? It’s akin to the promo rake in poker-it’s earned money, and it’s needed now.
The results were striking. Bonuses earned at NYRABets accounted for a third of the total handle, while TwinSpires and AmWager offered a 16% rate. While these bonuses don’t scale indefinitely-“you have to take what they give you,” as Churchill Downs Inc. analyst Joe kristufek points out-not utilizing them, especially on tracks already being played, is a missed opportunity. Sometimes, the promotions are compelling enough to shift focus for the day.
1/ST Racing’s xbselect captured the vast majority of wagering handle, thanks to its generous rebate program-unmatched by other ADWs. Coupled with access to Betmix, it became the clear choice. And to be clear, this isn’t a sponsored endorsement.
A 7.2% rebate at Xpressbet contributed to a final ROI of -6.67% across all wagers and ADWs. The Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup weekends were especially successful, fueled by a Pick 5 bonus at NYRABets during the Breeders’ Cup and participation in the Kentucky Derby tournament at TwinSpires.
Despite not sustaining that momentum throughout the year, a significant improvement was made in avoiding “winner’s tilt.” While winnings were eventually reinvested, there was a conscious effort to resist the impulsive spending that characterized previous successful weekends-a tendency to dissipate gains by the Preakness Stakes in years past.
Vertical play continues to show improvement, but chasing Pick 5s and their associated carryovers proved detrimental. Just as recognizing the value of rebates and promotions has shaped wagering strategy, a similar level of discernment is needed when selecting races to handicap-or choosing not to play at all.
Kentucky emerged as the most profitable circuit, with an ROI of -2% across the commonwealth. A strong Derby week contributed to this success, with Keeneland and Churchill Downs also performing well. This raises the question of whether more action should be directed towards Ellis Park, though the predominantly weekend schedule presents a challenge. Turfway Park proved to be a high-variance, costly endeavor.
Looking ahead to 2026, the goals are clear: continue to avoid winner’s tilt and exercise greater judgment in selecting both tracks and bets. Even more judiciousness will be applied to the decision of whether or not to play at all.Bet-backs consistently prove worthwhile,and the data supports the simple strategy of betting the favorite-no handicapping required. Opting in for bet-back races and betting on the chalk is consistently a positive ROI move.
