2024-02-09 00:38:30
“Luys” Foundation analyzed the socio-economic developments of the RA economy in 2023. in January-December.
Այսպես՝
The year 2023 ended with a fairly high rate of economic activity, but the structure of the economy deteriorated.
The indicator of economic activity accelerated sharply in the last two months of the year due to the growth of jewelry activities, as a result of which in 2023 the indicator of economic activity was 9.4%. At the same time, as in 2022 and 2023, economic growth has been largely driven by temporary and geopolitical factors, which may be neutralized, leaving the economy without growth engines. Under these conditions, although exports are growing, non-export sectors of the economy are developing, particularly trade, which is quite volatile and sensitive to shocks. Moreover, in 2023 along with the high growth, there was a decline in the output of a number of traditional economic branches (production of food, beverages, clothing), and therefore also in the export volumes of the products of these branches, which reflects the significant problems in the export sector.
2023 of the industry developments are quite worrying.
2023 the industrial sector saw rather low growth, despite the fact that the growth rate began to accelerate sharply towards the end of the year. Worryingly, there have been declining trends in the traditionally important sectors of the manufacturing industry, while the acceleration in the growth rate of the overall industry is due to an increase in jewelery activity, which is a component of the re-export process and may be of a short-term nature. In this regard, as mentioned above, there is a deterioration of the structure of the economy, which is also expressed by the deterioration of the structure of the industry sector, as the weights of the most unstable sectors increase, which in the medium term may increase the vulnerability of the RA economy to changes in the external situation.
The structure of exports has also deteriorated.
Developments in the industrial sector are also reflected in the structure of exports, which is also a cause for concern. Although the export volumes in 2023 have registered a significant increase, it was mainly due to the export of non-Armenian products, that is, re-export. At the same time, as expected (even at the beginning of 2022, economists were already expressing concerns about the new opportunities created as a result of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the prospect of negative effects on the Armenian economy), a decrease in export volumes is observed for a number of products of Armenian production. In other words, the growth of exports was caused by factors caused by the unstable and external situation, while the export of products produced in Armenia decreased. In this case, in the event of a change in the external situation, the factors ensuring export growth will be neutralized, and RA exports will no longer be at the same volume, leading to a significant reduction in exports. This also speaks of weakening the potential of the economy.
The agricultural sector “traditionally” continues to decline.
2023 a 0.3% decline was recorded. Although the government is implementing a number of measures to promote the agricultural sector, the sector continues to decline. 2023 the decline is mainly due to the decline of cattle breeding, which in turn is a consequence of the loss of a number of pastures in the border zones. This is another factor that reduces the potential of the economy, but this also has social consequences, as it directly affects the standard of living of the population living in rural areas.
Full analysis here