2024-07-26 15:19:15
Joe Biden has almost been written off by “Illner”. But Donald Trump is also taking a big risk with JD Vance, they say – and could give Putin an own goal.
“How do you campaign against a martyr who is still alive?” asked Maybrit Illner on Thursday evening. The best thing to do is not to campaign at all, her guests recommended to US President Joe Biden. While he is isolating himself in his private home with a corona infection, challenger Donald Trump is being cheered in Milwaukee. “Are Joe Biden’s days numbered?” asked Illner. “We can already count in hours,” said political scientist Peter Neumann from King’s College London.
- Ruprecht Polenz (CDU), foreign affairs expert
- Wolfgang Ischinger, security expert
- Peter Neumann, political scientist
- Annika Brockschmidt, journalist and author
- Liana Fix, historian and political scientist
- Katharina Nocun, conspiracy theory expert
“Yes, that’s actually how it looks,” said political scientist Liana Fix. The fact that Biden is now also suffering from Corona underlines the contrast to Trump, who seemed so vital after the assassination attempt. At the Republican convention, however, Trump appeared more fragile than usual to many observers. Nevertheless, the expert from the Council on Foreign Relations think tank, who was connected from Washington, DC, reported that rumors say it is only a matter of time before Biden withdraws from the race for the next presidency.
“He was a really good president,” said CDU politician Ruprecht Polenz, almost beginning to write the obituary for the US head of government. But the decisive question for voters is whether a candidate can hold the office for four years – “and not just until Easter.”
Polenz saw Vice President Kamala Harris as the most likely candidate in the event of Biden’s withdrawal: “That would perhaps be the crown princess.” Harris did not establish herself as Biden’s natural successor during her time in the White House, as the Democrats had hoped. However, according to journalist Annika Brockschmidt, her nomination could be exactly the spark that the party needs in the fight against Trump. Because even after the assassination, the race is by no means decided.
Now it depends on which party can mobilize its base more strongly. After the failed attack, conspiracy theories played a special role in Trump’s case, said political scientist (and former Pirate Party politician) Katharina Nocun.
According to a survey conducted by the weekly newspaper “The Economist” with the polling institute YouGov, 49 percent of adult Americans now believe that Trump will win the election. Even 16 percent of Democrats shared this view. Only 26 percent expected Biden to win. But at least 25 percent are undecided, according to the survey.
In the battle for swing voters, Trump may have made a crucial mistake, speculated Fix, referring to Trump’s possible vice president, the hardliner JD Vance. “Pride can come before a fall,” warned the political scientist.
In their view, Trump has missed the opportunity to tap into new groups of voters with his “running mate,” such as old, moderate Republicans. If Harris or another Democrat runs instead of Biden, things could get tight for Trump again.
But first Illner wanted to know: How tight will things be for Europe because of Vance? “Please don’t panic,” said diplomat Wolfgang Ischinger, who was connected from Milwaukee. There is no reason to “demonize” Trump and Vance, said the President of the Board of Trustees of the Munich Security Conference. Europe should not “complain collectively” now, but should approach the Republicans to secure its own interests.
Ukraine could also benefit from such talks, said Ischinger, who plans to establish contacts for the Munich Security Conference in Milwaukee. It must be made clear to the USA that if they abandon Ukraine, Beijing and Moscow will interpret this as a further sign of weakness after the hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Fix even thought it was conceivable that Trump could prove to be an “own goal” for Russia’s ruler Vladimir Putin. If the Kremlin chief escalates the war in Ukraine, a US President Trump could possibly overreact and strike back against Russia in a way that Biden would never have allowed.