2024-04-15 07:31:51
Will Iran attack Israel? This question was the most frequently discussed in political and media circles yesterday, Friday, as Israel anxiously awaited an attack by Iran or its allies, with increasing warnings of a retaliatory response to the attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus last week.
The emotional answer to yesterday’s question says that Iran will strike, and that it is very embarrassed and must finally show its strength after dozens of Israeli attacks that targeted Iranian points in Syria and Lebanon. But what if we thought in another way? What would Iran gain if it attacked Israel and what would it gain?
Iran knows that Israel has used the war in the Gaza Strip as a pretext to lure it into a fight with the United States, and those close to Israeli government circles know that Benjamin Netanyahu now sees a good opportunity to witness a heavyweight fight that Israel has always wanted and America has prevented. Israeli security calculations do not apply to American geopolitical calculations.
Successive Israeli governments have tried since 1996 until today to convince successive American administrations to launch a strike on Iran, but the American answer has always been “no.” We will not do it. Why, because Iran is simply a necessity for the American project in the region, and regional conflicts cannot continue in their current form if the presence declines. The carefully controlled Iranian “American” regime, which Washington sees as under control, while Israel fears it, which does not have any depth that can withstand an open war with a real military force, not a militia.
Iran knows that it can strike Israel, and it has limited options: proxy strikes through Hezbollah, the Houthis, or perhaps directly through its bases in Syria, but Iran has built a military project in the region that extends from Tehran to Gaza, passing through Baghdad, Damascus, and Beirut. Sanaa realizes that a direct clash with Israel now necessarily means a direct clash with America, and this is clear in the American statements: “We will defend Israel,” Biden said.
The question is: Is it in Iran’s interest to confront America now? With careful calculations, it is definitely “no” because the axis is not ready for an open war. Therefore, the price may be Iran’s retreat, even if it deals a painful blow to Israel, while waiting may provide an opportunity in which Washington will be less enthusiastic than now. To strike Iran and not be under pressure as is the case now.
Iran realizes that what is happening in Gaza and the long, open war on the Palestinians is nothing but an opportunity given to Israel to settle its score once and for all with the Hamas movement, and this opportunity was approved by everyone, and when we say everyone, we mean “the Arabs, the Europeans, and the Americans.” Only Iran was against this opportunity, but it did not It has the power to disrupt it, even though it was able to prolong the war longer than everyone expected and left Israel floundering in the mud of Gaza, but “Iran” knows that the end will not come except by eliminating Hamas’ military and political influence in the Gaza Strip.
Iran received a humiliating blow at its consulate in Damascus, and it is required to respond in order to confirm to its allies, rather than its enemies, that it is a regional player to be reckoned with, and if it receives a blow, it can respond to it, but Iran can only respond within Israel, unlike Israel, which can strike Iran in a wide sector that extends. From India’s borders eastward to the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, so Iran’s only option is war. Will it do it and risk what it has accumulated over the course of more than two decades, since the fall of Baghdad? This is a valid question.
But Iran may surprise the world with an unconventional response. What if it announced today or tomorrow a missile test of ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads? What if Iran revealed something new in its nuclear file and crossed the drawn lines? Who would then think of attacking it? Will Washington attack it? Iran has an important choice: to break the nuclear base and cross the red lines. Then the destruction of the Iranian consulate in Damascus will be the price for Iran taking a step towards possessing nuclear weapons. Do not be surprised, as Iranian diplomacy has long traditions and knows how to turn pressures into opportunities.
Last updated: April 13, 2024 – 15:38
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2024-04-15 07:31:51