2023-06-15 18:25:12
The end of rate hikes is drawing near, but it hasn’t arrived yet. This is the message that the world’s main central banks wanted to convey to the markets this week, making it clear that the battle against inflation will still be a long one and that there will be more increases between now and the end of the year.
Investors are trying to digest the new monetary policy landscape and, above all, how it will affect activity, against the backdrop of fears of a deeper economic slowdown.
Thus, and despite the fact that the rises were forcefully imposed on Wall Street, doubts weighed down the European Stock Markets, with falls at the close of the main stock markets of the Old Continent. In Spain, the Ibex-35 closed the session with a more moderate decrease, of barely 0.02%, to 9,430 points, thanks to the push of Inditex, one of the most important values in the selective and which rose 1 .9% to 34.65 euros per share.
CaixaBank (+0.98%), Acciona Energía (+0.89%) and Acciona (+0.86%), followed the value in the increases, while the biggest falls were for Grifols (-4.53%) , Santander (-1.72%), Sabadell (-1.72%), ArcelorMittal (-1.62%), Rovi (-0.89%), Acerinox (-0.68%), BBVA (-0 .62%).
July or September?
Regarding when the end of the increases will come, the analysts of the abrdn manager believe that “the one in July will be the last of the cycle, given the downward turn in inflation.” However, they clarify that wage growth continues to be very strong, “so there is a good chance that they will end up rising in September as well.”
The big question is whether this commitment to maintaining increases will end up making the dreaded recession a reality. In addition, as Anna Stupnytska, an analyst at Fidelity, recalls, “growth forecasts have been revised downwards slightly, underlining the greater trade-off between growth and inflation that the ECB faces.”
These doubts about the economic impact of the rate hikes were also reflected in the debt markets, where the required return to buy German debt (10-year bond) rose above 2.50%, while that of the Spanish bond also rose to 3.45%.
On the other hand, in the raw materials market, the price of oil is recovering positions thanks to a certain weakness of the dollar (the currency with which the raw material is traded). The Brent barrel, a reference in Europe, recovered almost 3% at the close of the European markets, up to 75.26 dollars, while the US West Texas was finally above 70 dollars.
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