Dramatic Increase in Drone Attacks Targets Russian Territory, Analysts Warn
A significant surge in drone attacks targeting Russian territory is expected to continue and could have a profound impact on the next phase of the war, experts are saying. Numerous regions in western, central, and southern Russia, including the capital Moscow, have experienced an uptick in unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) assaults, with Ukrainian-made drones being used to strike military bases, airfields, and fuel depots.
“The war is coming home to Russia,” stated Timothy Ash, an emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, referring to Ukraine’s determination to bring the destructive and unpredictable nature of war back to Russia itself. The recent use of drones to attack Russian soil represents a new facet of Ukraine’s military strategy.
Analysts agree that Ukraine’s ability to make life difficult for Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin, is becoming evident. The attacks in Crimea, the land corridor, the Kerch bridge, and even Russian shipping in the Black Sea have sent a clear message: the invasion that was meant to improve Russian security has actually made Crimea and Russia less secure for their own forces.
In recent days, drone assaults have intensified, reaching further into Russian territory. On Wednesday morning, at least six Russian regions reported attempted drone attacks, one of which resulted in the destruction and damage of four military transport planes at a northwestern airfield. Further attacks followed overnight on Thursday with more drones shot down in Moscow and the southern Bryansk region, which borders Ukraine. As a result of these attacks, airports in the targeted regions were forced to cancel and delay multiple flights.
Russia has blamed Ukraine for the latest drone attacks, while Ukraine has remained tight-lipped about these and previous assaults. However, it is undeniable that both countries have now incorporated UAVs into their military arsenals. Throughout the 19-month-long conflict, Ukraine has endured thousands of Russian drone attacks, which have heavily damaged its energy, defense, and civilian infrastructure. On Tuesday night alone, Kyiv reported repelling over 20 drone and missile attacks on the capital.
In recent months, Russia, too, has experienced an increase in drone attacks, targeting military bases, airfields, fuel depots, and even neighborhoods in Moscow. Experts believe that these attempts to attack Russian territory are likely directed by Ukrainian forces, who may receive assistance from disaffected anti-war Russians at times.
While drone attacks may be causing significant problems for Moscow on military and political levels, experts believe they are unlikely to destabilize Putin’s regime unless they directly impact the country’s elite. The Russian Ministry of Defense has been forced to redistribute its limited defense assets further into Russian territory, bringing them back from the frontlines and reducing their effectiveness against Ukrainian forces.
Kirill Shamiev, a Russian political scientist and visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, stated that the increase in attacks on Russian territory is unlikely to cause much concern among Russian society, as it is not close-knit and has encountered few deaths from drone attacks. Nevertheless, if drones continue to target elite neighborhoods in Moscow—where Putin’s allies and associates reside—it could become a serious problem for the Kremlin.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced in mid-August that the country was actively working to increase the production of drones with different ranges and purposes. Ukrainian military expert Oleksandr Musiyenko expects drone attacks to intensify further as Ukraine boosts its domestic drone production.
While Ukraine may not possess the same range of missiles as Russia, the increased production of different types of drones is seen as crucial in the ongoing conflict with Russia. Drones have become the “eyes” and protection on the frontline, reducing the risk to Ukrainian soldiers’ lives.
As the drone attacks persist and escalate, it remains to be seen how Russia will respond and whether this new chapter in the conflict will significantly impact the balance of power between the two nations.