2024-05-09 06:34:04
Immigration issue emerges as a hot issue in the US presidential election
Biden prepares measures to strengthen border controls
Britain also turned to curbing immigration.
‘Immigrant-led economic growth’ faces headwinds… Point out that “show policy cannot change the big trend”
An unprecedented immigration boom is facing backlash in major developed countries. In the United States, as immigration has emerged as the biggest issue in the presidential election, the Joe Biden administration is preparing measures to strengthen border controls. The British, Canadian, and Australian governments have introduced immigration curbs that make it difficult to obtain visas. The economic growth model that has been led by immigration is shaking.
● Immigration issue emerged as a hot issue in the US presidential election
In the United States, where the presidential election is ahead, the biggest issue right now is not the economy or inflation, but immigration. In Gallup’s monthly ‘America’s Biggest Problem’ poll, immigration ranked first for three consecutive months from February to April. This is the first time that immigration has ranked first for this long since the first survey was conducted in 1999.
The immigration to the United States is at an all-time high. The U.S. Congressional Budget Office estimated the number of net immigrants (inflow – outflow) last year to be 3.3 million. Compared to 2019 (420,000 people) right before the pandemic, the number exploded eight-fold. Of these, 2.4 million are illegal immigrants who have crossed the border without permission or have not yet received court permission.
Last year, after Texas transported a large number of immigrants to New York and Chicago, the chaos caused by the overflow of immigrants became a national issue. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump’s offensive inciting hatred of immigrants has penetrated the electorate.
President Biden, who was on the defensive, took a hard-line stance this year, talking about the “authority to close the border.” There are continued reports that the U.S. government is preparing measures to raise asylum application standards and deport newly arriving immigrants.
● Developed countries closing their doors to immigration
The United States is not the only country where immigration has become a major political issue. The Australian government, which recorded the highest number of net immigrants ever (518,000 people) last year, has set a goal of reducing this number to 250,000 by 2025. To this end, we have introduced a policy to significantly strengthen skilled immigration qualifications and raise the English score standard for international students. “The immigration system we inherited is completely broken,” Australian Home Affairs Minister Claire O’Neill said in his statement last month.
Canada, which recorded a steep population growth rate (3.2% last year), also turned to curbing immigration. The goal is to reduce the number of foreign workers and students staying in Canada by 20% by 2026 from the current number (2.5 million). Starting this month, it will be difficult for Canadian companies to hire foreigners without permanent residency.
With a general election ahead of the end of this year, the UK has attempted to reduce immigration by significantly raising the wage level for receiving a skilled worker visa (from 26,200 pounds to 38,700 pounds, approximately 66 million won). The Netherlands has significantly reduced tax benefits for high-wage foreign workers starting this year, and New Zealand recently announced that it would introduce English standards for immigrants in low-skilled jobs.
Against this backdrop, there is a serious housing shortage. The goal is to appease public opinion, which has worsened as rents have soared due to a housing shortage, through anti-immigration policies. The housing shortage caused by the pandemic and the aftermath of the war in Ukraine is actually a common phenomenon around the world. However, these countries blame immigrants for this. There are even vague claims that providing welfare benefits to immigrants will strain the national finances.
● Will the economic growth engine falter?
The influx of immigrants is the driving force that supports developed economies. In these countries where there is a labor shortage due to aging, low-wage immigrant labor has been filling areas such as construction, lodging, and nursing. Thanks to this, economic growth was achieved without a high rate of wage growth. Thanks to the influx of international students, universities have increased their tuition revenue significantly. The country’s pension system, which was at risk of depletion due to low birth rates, also extended life. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said in its latest economic outlook report that “last year’s unusually large influx of immigrants” contributed to the growth of OECD countries’ gross domestic product (GDP). The Brookings Institution in the U.S. also analyzed in a March report that both the recent employment boom and increased consumer spending in the U.S. are “immigrant effects.”
Therefore, slowing down the growth of immigration means slowing down economic growth. Desjardins, a Canadian financial company, has already predicted that “due to changes in immigration policy, Canada could fall into an economic recession this year with a decline in real GDP.”
This is why some analysts say that anti-immigration policies will not be effective in reality. Heinder Haas, a professor at the University of Amsterdam, points out in his book ‘How Immigration Really Works’ that anti-immigration policies in developed countries are “just an act of political showmanship that conceals the true nature.” This means that it is a show-off policy for election purposes and does not change the actual trend of increased immigration.
Reporter Han Ae-ran haru@donga.com
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2024-05-09 06:34:04