Electricity: France once again becomes the leading exporter in Europe but prices will still remain high during the coming winter

by time news

2023-08-11 12:00:00

ENERGY – A net importer in 2022, France regained its position as the leading electricity exporter in Europe in the first half of 2023. According to an energy data analysis firm, France has overtaken Sweden and Spain, exporting 17.6 TWh (terawatt-hour) mainly to the United Kingdom and Italy. A reversal of the situation favored by the revival of nuclear power, which will not, however, prevent the rise in electricity prices, provided for by the gradual lifting of the tariff shield. After a 15% increase in electricity rates on February 1, another 10% increase came into effect on Tuesday August 1. The trend should continue during the coming winter.

According to a report by the energy research firm, EnAppSys, France, whose electricity production in 2022 fell to its lowest level since 1992, regained its status as the leading exporter in Europe six months later. Paris exported 17.6 TWh to its European neighbors during the first half of 2023, overtaking Sweden (14.6 TWh) and Spain (8.8 TWh). The United Kingdom and Italy are its main customers, we know.

Nuclear boosts electricity production

France had however become in 2022 a net importer of electricity after the closure of its nuclear reactors. According to Annual Review of the Electricity Transport Network (RTE), France had, for the first time since 1980, recorded a deficit of 16.5 TWh, a little less than 4% of national consumption. Nearly 85% of this deficit, i.e. 14 TWh, was imported between June and December 2022. Six months later, i.e. during the first half of the current year, France exports nearly 18 TWh.

A recovery explained by the restart of nuclear reactors. The EDF company has returned half of the fleet to service. “The increase in exports to France compared to the previous year is explained by an increased availability of the country’s nuclear assets”, confirmed Jean-Paul Harreman, director of EnAppSys. “Although availability is still 10 to 15% lower than normal, the increase in capacity of between 5 and 10 GW compared to last year has made it possible to turn the French energy balance towards exports”.

Exports were also boosted by the activity of operators who, benefiting from guaranteed minimum selling prices, maintained production, causing short-term market prices to fall. “As the cheaper production became available on the French market, it began to export again to Britain”confirms EnAppSys again.

Despite the increase in production and the resumption of exports, electricity prices will not drop next winter. Admittedly, the RTE poster better forecasts for autumn and winter than last year, thanks to hydraulic stocks from dams and gas which are at “very satisfactory levels”, “renewable energies in development”a nuclear “at the highest” and an “electricity consumption still falling”. Prices, meanwhile, will remain high.

The average annual bill for the French rises to 1,850 euros

RTE explains this maintenance of prices at a high level by the “disproportionate concerns” on the markets, linked to the French nuclear industry. While EDF was able to return to profit in the first half of 2023 thanks to exports, a series of reviews aimed at verifying the state of nuclear power plants still allows operators to speculate. At the end of July, 11 of the 16 reactors sensitive to the so-called “stress corrosion”, have been repaired. Two others are still being repaired.

The players are thus waiting to know the exact number of reactors available during the coming winter before deciding on any price reduction, leaving the market currently under tension, with one-year prices still high. Prices on the futures markets, although lower than those of 2022, are still very high, reaching in recent weeks between 200 and 400 euros per MWh against 200 euros in other European countries. A situation that RTE explains by the “too pessimistic vision” of market players of supply risk in France.

In the meantime, households as well as businesses will have to pay even more expensive electricity since the beginning of the month. The government is continuing the gradual lifting of the tariff shield introduced in October 2021 to protect purchasing power. Rates, which have already increased by 15% on February 1, recorded another increase of 10% on August 1. This represents an average additional cost of just over 150 euros per year (13 euros per month) for households. The average electricity bill will thus go from an average of 1,700 euros to just over 1,850 euros.

The State will still bear more than a third of the electricity bill of the French as part of this shield, which has already cost (including gas and electricity) around 40 billion euros. The electricity shield will be maintained until the beginning of 2025 with regular reductions.


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