Qualified, as in 2017, against Emmanuel Macron in the second round of the presidential election, Marine Le Pen intends to transform the campaign between the two rounds into a referendum against the head of state.
From the evening of the first round, the supporters of Mme Le Pen attacked the record of the Head of State, particularly in terms of immigration, citing the figure of two million legal immigrants, who, according to them, arrived under the mandate of Mr. Macron.
MEP and spokesperson for the National Rally (RN) Jean-Lin Lacapelle attacked BFM-TV, Monday, April 11, at that “who opened the floodgates to immigration like never before during his five-year term, more than two million immigrants in five years”.
On France 5Tuesday, it was the turn of another RN spokesperson, Laurent Jacobelli, to put forward a slightly different figure: “Emmanuel Macron brought in 1.5 million immigrants in five years, that is equivalent to billions [d’euros] ! » A number also present in Marine Le Pen’s profession of faith for the 1is round, and that she intends to resume for that of the second round, which earned her to be singled out by the National Commission for the Control of the Electoral Campaign (CNCCEP).
During the campaign, the figure of two million additional immigrants had been repeated by Eric Zemmour. And this, until the end. At the time of his defeat speechon Sunday, the far-right candidate, who won 7.05% of the vote, called for Marine Le Pen to vote against “to a man who brought in two million immigrants”.
But as we already explained in October 2021, this figure is greatly exaggerated.
WHY THIS NUMBER IS WRONG
Be careful with these allegations which claim that two million immigrants have settled in France since 2017. This figure, which has been circulating for several months on the far right, is supposed to include the statistics of legal entries, asylum applications and unaccompanied minors. However, it is based on figures from the Ministry of the Interior, which counts all the first residence permits issued each year, without counting those who have left from one year to another.
For example, according to estimates by the Ministry of the Interior, 85,000 first residence permits were granted for study reasons in 2021, yet analyzes have shown that more than 35% of student immigrants leave within the year, as explained to World the Ministry.
The figures used by the RN or Reconquest! are therefore not relevant for measuring the growth of the immigrant population in France. The teams of Marine Le Pen and Eric Zemmour could have consulted the data from the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (Insee), which only lists people planning to settle in the country for more than one year. year. The most relevant figure is the migratory balance of immigrants, ie the difference between the number of immigrants entering the territory and those who left during the year.
For this, the institute uses the results of the population census and population estimates up to 1is January 2021. In 2020, the latest year available, the net migration of immigrants was 169,000. A figure lower than in previous years, due to the health crisis linked to Covid-19, which led many countries to close their borders, reducing population movements.
In a “normal” year like 2019, the migratory balance of immigrants was 214,000… a count half as high as the 400,000 additional immigrants per year announced by the spokesperson for the RN or Mr. Zemmour.
If migratory flows resumed in 2021 their level before the health crisis, the migratory balance over the entire five-year term of Emmanuel Macron would rather result in one million additional immigrants. To be even fairer, it would also be necessary to count the 55,000 immigrants who die each year on average on French territory. We would then end up with some 700,000 additional immigrants during the mandate of Emmanuel Macron, and not two million.