Are the “small gestures” that citizens apply out of good conscience or out of constraint already bearing fruit? Electricity consumption has fallen sharply in recent weeks: -6.2% from November 17 to 23 and -5.3% over the last 30 days compared to the same period on average over the pre-Covid years (2014- 2019), according to the figures communicated for the first time by the manager Electricity transmission network (RTE).
But what do these developments really mean, when it has been very hot for the season since mid-October? And which sectors are contributing the most to this decline? We take stock.
The decrease in electricity consumption is linked to the weather
Everyone has seen it: the thermometer has often displayed abnormally high temperatures for the season at the start of autumn, especially during the first half of September and then – above all – since mid-October. It is therefore logical that the electricity consumption is lower. Several Internet users have also retorted on Twitter to the Minister for Energy Transition, Agnès Pannier-Runacher, when she was delighted with this drop in consumption, considering in particular that “the sobriety plan is starting to bear its fruit”.
In reality, these drops of 6.2% (over the last full week) and 5.3% (over the past month) are “corrected for weather and calendar effects”, indicates RTE.
Clearly, the electricity consumption is first reduced to that “which would have occurred if the temperatures had been aligned with the normal temperatures for the period”. In addition, electricity consumption data for past years is “adjusted so that historical weekdays correspond to weekdays of this year and to take into account the placement of public holidays”. Consumption varies greatly depending on the day, especially between weekdays and weekends. “We compare Tuesdays to Tuesdays, public holidays to public holidays, vacation days to vacation days, etc. “, we detail at RTE.
Without applying this double correction, the drop in electricity consumption compared to pre-Covid years would be much greater (around almost 10% in the last week).
Citizen eco-gestures have had a role
RTE writes in black on white: “The drop in electricity consumption is mainly driven by industry. Over the last thirty days, large industry (excluding rail transport) has consumed between 8 and 9% less electricity than on average between 2014 and 2019. If manufacturers have been less “greedy”, it is essentially “because prices have increased very sharply” and therefore to save money, specifies RTE.
What impact have citizens’ gestures of sobriety had, and in particular the “small gestures” of everyday life (unplugging electrical appliances, limiting heating, etc.). ? This one is definitely pretty minimal at the moment. “It will be especially visible when it is necessary to heat the dwellings”, we slip at RTE. Heating is, in fact, a major source of electricity consumption for individuals.
Nevertheless, 65% of households have already made significant changes in behavior for several months, due in particular to soaring prices, according to a Crédoc study. The French could be even more careful if ever the electricity network finds itself under high tension this winter, especially in the event that the temperatures are particularly low. For the moment, the coming days are still expected to be abnormally mild – even hot – for the season.