Two autocrats threaten to break the unity of NATO and the European Union in their response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blocked, on Wednesday May 18, a procedural vote on Finland and Sweden’s application for membership, during a first meeting of ambassadors from the 30 NATO member countries. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has been opposing the adoption of a European embargo on Russian oil for more than a month.
→ READ. Joining NATO: what steps for Sweden and Finland?
All NATO decisions are taken by consensus, after an exchange of views and consultation between member states. These consultations continue until these countries decide whether or not to agree on an issue. Within the European institutions, the principle of unanimity applies in particular to the decisions of the European Council, where each of the 27 Heads of State and Government therefore has a right of veto.
Ankara expects compensation on armament
The two strong men know how to use these rules to barter their support in exchange for concessions. In the name of the “national security” of Turkey, Erdogan accuses the two Nordic countries of harboring members of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), classified as a terrorist organization by Ankara. Sweden, qualified as « nest of terrorists »is ordered to respond positively to his extradition requests and to put an end to the freeze on arms exports to Turkey.
Secretly, Ankara intends to obtain counterparties, in particular in terms of American armament. Following a meeting on Wednesday May 18 in New York with his American counterpart Antony Blinken, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Cavusoglu declared himself optimistic about the progress of the negotiations relating to the acquisition of new F-16 fighter.
Viktor Orban invokes the “energy security” of Hungary to demand longer exemptions (until the end of 2024, in the latest Commission proposal) and aid, amounting to between 15 and 18 billion euros over five years, to finance investments in new infrastructures and compensate price increases. Hungary imports 85% of its gas and 65% of its oil from Russia.
Delay EU sanctions against Hungary
How far will Viktor Orban go? In Brussels, European diplomats suspect that his delaying tactics aim to put pressure on the Commission in the implementation of the conditionality mechanism, recently activated against Budapest. The disbursement of European funds could be suspended or reduced for violation of the principles of the rule of law, in terms of public procurement, conflicts of interest and corruption. The dispute over the embargo could, however, be settled at the highest level, during the extraordinary European summit on May 30 and 31.
→ ANALYSIS. Sanctions against Russia: the European Union exposed to the Hungarian veto
Without waiting, Moscow hailed Budapest’s opposition to the European embargo on Russian oil as “a brave step for a voiceless Europe”. “Apparently, the most sensible leaders of EU countries are tired of heading quietly to the precipice, with the whole sterilized European herd, led to the slaughterhouse by the American shepherd,” Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the National Security Council, said in a message on his Telegram channel in early May. According to the Russian Foreign Ministry, Washington pressured the EU to declare «an all-out trade and economic war on Russia».