2023-08-18 17:34:45
Russian tanks enter Estonia, Madagascar retakes the Scattered Islands from France, Erdogan’s Turkey attacks the Imia Islands, the Charles de Gaulle sunk by China, Mali falls into the hands of jihadists… With the help of Forty researchers, diplomats, generals and former members of the intelligence services, the Express has developed five credible hypotheses leading to a French military response: dark scenarios that overlap with those on which the French army is already working and on which it is prepared. Check out our long format video on our YouTube channel.
EPISODE 1/5 – March 2026: Putin launches a special operation in Estonia
EPISODE 2/5 – August 2028: France loses the Scattered Islands off Madagascar
This third dark scenario is set in the eastern Mediterranean. We are in February 2027. Recep Tayyip Erdogan is completing his third term as President of the Turkish Republic. Borrowing from a nationalist fever, he sets his sights on the Imia Islands, located just 7km from the Turkish coast, and under Greek sovereignty since 1946.
On the morning of February 17, the invasion begins. After several days of naval combat, France decided to intervene and flew to the aid of Greece. This hypothesis, leading to a French military response, is deemed credible by a panel of experts contacted by L’Express.
Find here the analysis of Admiral Ausseur, Director General of the Mediterranean Foundation for Strategic Studies (FMES) and Clément Daniez, journalist in the World service of L’Express.
Image credits: MURAT KULA / ANADOLU AGENCY / LUDOVIC MARIN / ISTOCK / MEMULAR
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