It is the realization of a reconciliation hoped for several months. Thursday, April 28, Recep Tayyip Erdogan will set foot on Saudi soil for the first time since the barbaric assassination of Jamal Khashoggi in 2018 at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. This visit to Riyadh, mentioned many times in the past, follows the abandonment of the trial of the alleged murderers of the Saudi journalist and the transfer of the judicial file to Riyadh three weeks ago.
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This “gift” from Ankara, which made human rights defenders and the murdered journalist’s fiancée howl, was not without ulterior motives on Turkey’s part. « Erdoganused this pressure lever in the face of MBS (Mohammed Bin Salman) for whom the Khashoggi file is essential, even obsessive, explains Anne Gadel, Middle East specialist at the Jean-Jaurès Foundation. This visit seals the end of a deep antagonism. »
The prior appeasement between Arabia and Qatar
“This reconciliation, prepared for months, has also been favored by the appeasement between Saudi Arabia and Qatar, Turkey’s last strategic partner, adds Aurélien Denizeau, researcher in history and specialist in Turkey. This trip marks the fact that despite these disputes, the relationship between the two countries can be, if not cordial, at least normal. »
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In Riyadh on Thursday, Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet Salman, the octogenarian king of Arabia, and especially Crown Prince Mohammed Ben Salman, the country’s de facto ruler. The page of tensions having been turned, the Turkish president is now seeking help from the Saudis at a time when his country is in a very tense economic situation, aggravated by inflationary pressure linked to the war in Ukraine. “Many Turkish investors have insisted with Erdogan to obtain partnerships with the Saudis”, specifies Aurélien Denizeau. An improvement has already been felt in recent months, contrasting with the Saudi embargo imposed on Ankara after the Khashoggi affair: Turkish exports to Saudi Arabia jumped 25% in the first quarter, according to the Assembly of Turkish Exporters, or 70 million goods exported against 55 million last year.
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Erdogan applies the same method there as with the United Arab Emirates where he went in February, for the first time in ten years. A rapprochement paying off since thirteen cooperation agreements and memorandums of understanding were then signed between the two countries.
Coming out of diplomatic isolation
Erdogan’s approach is part of his new, more peaceful regional diplomacy, as evidenced by recent rapprochements with former enemies, such as Egypt and Israel. “This is the latest act in a series of efforts by Turkey to normalize relations with its neighbors, believes Anne Gadel. Since the relaxation in the Gulf and with the American disengagement from the region, the regional actors are forced to be more realistic. Everyone realizes that it is better to repair the links with its neighbors than to revive old antagonisms. » Turkey is thus seeking to emerge from its diplomatic isolation. “She hopes to gain more support on issues on which she is alone, such as the dispute with Greece”, specifies Aurélien Denizeau.
Although Turkish public opinion supports this policy of regional openness, President Erdogan nevertheless risks attracting criticism by appearing alongside the Saudi crown prince, accused of having ordered the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi, two days after the verdict sentencing the Turkish patron Osman Kavala to life imprisonment.“Part of the opposition will not fail to make the link between the two events, says the researcher, and to point out the hypocrisy of the Turkish leader, who gave human rights lessons to Saudi Arabia after the Khashoggi affair, but changed his tone when he needed to. »