Ethiopian federal forces and allied fighters recaptured the regional capital of Mekelle on October 3, 2026, prompting the withdrawal of Tigray People’s Liberation Front forces and reviving civilian fears of prolonged violence after the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement.
Federal Forces Retake Mekelle as TPLF Withdraws
Leadership of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front abandoned the regional capital before federal units entered the city. Local residents reported widespread looting during a brief security vacuum that followed the withdrawal, while the TPLF announced it had relocated its administration and fighters to continue armed struggle from other areas.
The Tigray People’s Liberation Front confirmed that it had withdrawn from Mekelle, while the ENDF took control of the city on October 3. The conflict had significantly intensified across southern Tigray, northern Amhara, and western Afar regions since hostilities began. On September 21, seven groups, including the TPLF, the Amhara Fano National Movement, and the Oromo Liberation Army, announced the creation of the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, which aims to overthrow the federal government. Days later, the TPLF seized key regional airports and advanced into the Amhara and Afar regions. The African Union previously documented the seizure and occupation of airports in Mekelle, Axum, and Shire on September 23, alongside the disruption of civilian air services, prompting Ethiopian Airlines to suspend flights to the three cities.
Tigrayan forces launched a major offensive, seizing airports and advancing into neighboring areas before Ethiopian federal forces and allied militias began counterattacks. Pro-government forces recaptured the strategic town of Alamata, south of Mekelle. The Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front and the Tigray Defense Forces, the military wing of the TPLF, had captured Abala on September 22, and subsequently advanced to take Erebti.
Rebel Coalitions Expand Conflict Across Horn of Africa
The renewed fighting extends far beyond Tigray, drawing in an alliance of seven rebel groups known as the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival. This coalition brings together forces from Afar, Amhara, and other regions, including Fano militias that have previously clashed with federal troops.
Diplomatic tensions have simultaneously intensified between Addis Ababa and neighboring governments. Ethiopia has accused outside actors of supporting anti-government armed groups as relations with Eritrea and Egypt deteriorate.
The current escalation has several layers. On the surface, there is renewed fighting between the federal forces and TPLF [Tigray People’s Liberation Front]-affiliated elements in the north.
Dr. Endaylalu, expert
Ethiopia’s army chief, Field Marshal Birhanu Jula, publicly accused Eritrea, Sudan, and Egypt of supporting forces fighting the federal government, adding a regional dimension to the confrontation. Asmara denied Ethiopian accusations of destabilization.
Civilians Face Mounting Toll as International Bodies Appeal
Human rights organizations and religious leaders have raised urgent concerns regarding the impact of renewed hostilities on civilian populations still recovering from the 2020–2022 civil war, which an African Union mediator estimated left about 600,000 dead.
Amnesty International urged the African Union Peace and Security Council to convene an emergency session, citing reports of civilian infrastructure damage from aerial attacks. Catholic bishops in Ethiopia issued an appeal calling on all parties to choose dialogue, forgiveness, and reconciliation while designating October as a period of prayer and fasting for peace.
Amnesty International’s Regional Director for East and Southern Africa, Tigere Chagutah, stated that the African Union must activate its response mechanisms and mobilize member states before it is too late. The fighting between Tigrayan forces and their allies, including Amhara Fano forces, and the ENDF and its allies intensified across southern Tigray, northern Amhara, and western Afar. The renewed hostilities involved intensive aerial attacks across Tigray, including Axum and Mekelle, with civilian infrastructure and schools damaged during aerial attacks.
In August, an alleged ENDF airstrike hit a residential compound in Mekelle, wounding 13 civilians, including seven children, prompting Human Rights Watch to call for an investigation into war crimes. TPLF head Debretsion Gebremichael appeared on Tigrai Television to reaffirm the TPLF’s intention to continue fighting through mobile warfare following strategic withdrawals. Meanwhile, Lt General Tadesse Werede and associates were detained by the TPLF on October 2.