EU Weighs Rollback of 2035 Combustion Engine Ban, Sparking Auto Industry Debate
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The European Commission is poised to announce measures easing a planned 2035 ban on new gasoline and diesel car sales, igniting a complex debate within the auto industry and raising questions about the future of Europe’s ambitious climate goals.
The potential shift comes after intense lobbying from European automakers and their backers, though divisions remain over the best path forward. While the initial 2035 ban – announced in 2023 despite German reservations – aimed to accelerate the transition to carbon neutrality by 2050, pressure has mounted to reconsider its scope and timeline.
The Rationale Behind the 2035 Target
The 2035 deadline was established on the premise that the average vehicle remains on the road for 15 years, meaning a ban on new combustion engine vehicles would largely eliminate planet-warming emissions from the transportation sector by mid-century. A scheduled review in 2026 was already in place, but carmakers and governments successfully pushed for an accelerated assessment, culminating in proposed adjustments expected by the end of 2025. These proposals will now be scrutinized by the European Parliament.
What Adjustments Are Under Consideration?
The debate is no longer solely about delaying the 2035 date, but about modifying the regulations themselves. Automakers are advocating for continued authorization of hybrid vehicles – specifically those with rechargeable batteries or range extenders – to bridge the gap to full electrification. This position is strongly supported by Germany, where major automakers have established factories, and extends to other Eastern European nations.
According to a statement from the ACEA, the association of European carmakers, “the 2035 CO2 targets for cars and vans are no longer realistic.”
Another potential avenue for flexibility lies in the increased use of alternative fuels derived from agricultural crops and waste products, an option favored by Italy. However, environmental groups are voicing strong opposition to a large-scale shift towards crop-based biofuels, citing concerns about increased pesticide use, soil depletion, and limited emissions reductions. Furthermore, the reliance on imported biofuels would undermine the EU’s goal of energy autonomy.
A Divided Auto Industry
European car manufacturers – including BMW, Mercedes, Renault, Stellantis, and VW – are not unified in their approach, largely due to varying levels of progress in their transition to electric models. The burgeoning electric vehicle sector, encompassing battery manufacturers, charging station providers, and electricity companies, is largely opposed to any rollback of the 2035 target.
“Rolling back these objectives would undermine the EU’s energy sovereignty, industrial leadership, and climate credibility,” stated a representative from the UFE, a French electricity industry trade group.
France, Spain, and Nordic countries have consistently championed the original trajectory towards electric vehicles, fearing that any deviation could jeopardize investments already made in the transition. Paris has indicated a willingness to consider some flexibility, but only if it prioritizes locally sourced content, a move that would benefit suppliers facing competition from cheaper Chinese alternatives.
The Risks of Backsliding
Experts warn that short-term gains could come at the expense of long-term sustainability. “What is considered a short-term advantage may not be one in the long term,” cautioned Jean-Philippe Hermine of the IDDRI think tank.
Bernard Jullien, an economist at the University of Bordeaux, argued that maintaining multiple technologies would increase costs and create uncertainty for companies, potentially leading to a “wait-and-see” attitude among consumers.
The broader geopolitical context also weighs heavily on the debate. As one analyst noted, “Between China and its electric vehicles and the oil that Saudi Arabia and the United States wants to sell us, is the right choice to stick with our old technology?”
