2023-11-08 02:08:25
He 12-month Euribor has stagnated in recent weeks, after the European Central Bank gave a break and decided not to raise interest rates, and mortgage experts have launched an optimistic message for the coming weeks. The most used indicator in mortgages in Spain closed in October at 4,16%, according to data from the Bank of Spain, but in recent days it has chained one drop after another. This Friday, November 3, it has dropped another 8 thousandths in its daily rate until 4.004% and leaves the provisional average for the month of November, with only two days quoted, in the 4.02%.
In this way, the Euribor (acronym for Euro Interbank Offered Rate) has stood in October at 0.009 percentage points above the level of September, when it was placed at 4.149%, although it cannot be compared with October 2022. when it was at 2.629%, 1,531 less.
In recent days the indicator has shown a downward trend in its daily rate, falling below 4.1%, and has pushed specialists to launch optimistic forecasts about the evolution of the rate and how it may affect mortgage holders. .
“The top could be near”
«The Euribor is resisting exceeding the 4.2% barrier more than expected. It has now been at 4% for five months and the accumulated growth does not exceed two tenths. This is good news because, if we look back just a few months, we see that those two tenths were easy to overcome from one month to the next and that now they do not do so shows that it is stabilizing and that the peak, if the ECB allows, it could be close,” says, for his part, the mortgage director of iSavingsSimone Colombelli.
iAhorro highlights the importance of the next ECB meeting, scheduled for December 14. “We will have to be aware of whether it raises rates again by another 0.25 points or waits until 2024 to continue with the increases, because it is clear that there will be more,” says Colombelli.
The prediction of the CEO of CaixaBank
Just a few months ago, in the middle of summer, the CEO of CaixaBank, Gonzalo Gortázar, predicted that the Euribor will be lower than a year ago in April 2024, so the increase in mortgage payments was going to be a problem that “will go downhill” due to the decisions that the European Central Bank (ECB) is making.
How much does the mortgage go up?
The Euribor level for October implies that a person who has contracted a variable mortgage of 150,000 euros with a residual maturity period of 30 years and with a differential of 0.99% plus Euribor and must review their interest rate in the month of October, you will register an increase in your mortgage payment of about 136 euros per month.
This calculation implies the maximum level of increase for a person who has contracted a mortgage with that financed level, since since it is a review at the beginning of the loan (that is, there are 30 years left to amortize), the change in the type of Interest has much more impact as there is a lot of principal to amortize.
Interest rates
The analysts of HelpMyCash They point out that “little by little” the index seems to begin to stagnate, in the heat of the ECB’s pause. In this way, official rates will remain at 4.5% at least until December and it is therefore likely that the Euribor “will not suffer major variations” in the remainder of 2023.
According to the comparator, banks predict that the ECB will keep its rates stagnant and could reduce them at some point in 2024, “hence the Euribor has slowed its rise and ended the month of October with a value only a little higher.” than the one in September.
Gortázar predicts a drop in the Euribor from April 2024 EP
A Euribor between 3.5% and 4% in 2024
«With this panorama, no decrease is to be expected in the short-medium term. For that to be the case, we would have to see the Euribor at levels below 3.3% or 3.7% at the beginning of 2024 and it is practically impossible for that to happen,” explains the spokeswoman for Kelisto.esEstefanía González.
González, however, is not entirely pessimistic and points out that the most likely situation is that there will be “somewhat milder” increases than in 2022 for all those who are going to review their mortgages, at least if interest rates remain stable. at current levels. “Talking about a Euribor that moves between 3.5% and 4% throughout 2024 seems to us to be the most accurate hypothesis if the economic context does not experience major variations,” he concludes in this regard.
Other interest rates: from Míbor to 6-month Euribor
The Bank of Spain has also published that the Míbor, the one-year interbank rate that served as the official reference of the mortgage market for operations carried out prior to January 1, 2000, also closed October at 4.160%.
Regarding the new official interest rates that are now published, the Euribor for one week stood at 3.882%, for one month at 3.861%, for three months at 3.968% and six months at 4.115%.
Related news
Regarding the short-term interest rate on money (€STR), defined as the value of the average compound interest rate on different terms (one week, one month, three months, six months and 12 months) which is prepared and disseminated by the European Central Bank (ECB), the reference interest rate based on the €STR at one week stood at 3.386%, at one month at 3.903%, at three months at 3.775%, at six months at 3.519% and at one year at 2.834%.
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