The battle for currency supremacy in global trade is rarely a total victory, but rather a fragmented map of influence. In the latest trade data for 2025, a clear divide has emerged: while the euro has established a dominant foothold in the trade of primary goods and manufactured exports, the U.S. Dollar continues to maintain a near-monopoly over the energy sector.
According to the ext_lt_invcur dataset, the euro has become the primary vehicle for extra-EU imports of primary goods—excluding petroleum—capturing a 47.4% share of the market. This puts it slightly ahead of the U.S. Dollar, which holds a 45.0% share. The shift highlights a growing trend of the European Union leveraging its own currency to secure raw materials and essential primary resources from outside its borders.
This dominance is even more pronounced when looking at exports. For primary goods leaving the EU, the euro is the undisputed leader, accounting for 62.2% of transactions. This suggests that the EU is not only preferring its own currency for purchases but is increasingly successful in demanding euro-denominated payments from its global trading partners for raw materials.
The Persistence of the Petrodollar
Despite the euro’s gains in primary and manufactured goods, the energy market remains a fortress for the U.S. Dollar. The data reveals a stark contrast in petroleum products, where the dollar’s influence is not just dominant, but overwhelming. For imports of petroleum products in 2025, the U.S. Dollar accounts for 86.7% of all transactions.
In comparison, the euro’s share in petroleum imports sits at a distant 12.9%. Other EU currencies and non-EU currencies are virtually non-existent in this sector, representing a combined total of just 0.3%. This disparity underscores the enduring nature of the “petrodollar” system, where global oil pricing and settlement remain tethered to U.S. Financial infrastructure.
Interestingly, the dollar’s grip is slightly looser on the export side of energy. While the U.S. Dollar still leads petroleum exports with a 70.1% share, the euro has managed to carve out a larger piece of the pie, representing 27.5% of exports. This indicates that while the EU is heavily dependent on the dollar to fuel its economy, it is finding more success in diversifying the currency used when it sells energy products to the rest of the world.
Industrial Tug-of-War in Manufactured Goods
The competition becomes most acute in the realm of manufactured goods, where the euro and the dollar are locked in a tight race. The U.S. Dollar holds a slight edge in imports of manufactured goods at 46.2%, while the euro follows closely at 43.3%. Other non-EU currencies account for 8.5%, and other EU currencies stand at 1.7%.
However, the tide turns when looking at the EU’s industrial exports. The euro is the preferred currency for 50.4% of manufactured goods exported from the EU, comfortably outpacing the U.S. Dollar’s 32.4% share. This suggests that the EU’s high-value industrial exports—ranging from machinery to automotive parts—are increasingly settled in the bloc’s single currency, reducing the exchange rate risk for European producers.
| Trade Category | Euro Share (Imports) | USD Share (Imports) | Euro Share (Exports) | USD Share (Exports) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary Goods (excl. Oil) | 47.4% | 45.0% | 62.2% | 22.9% |
| Petroleum Products | 12.9% | 86.7% | 27.5% | 70.1% |
| Manufactured Goods | 43.3% | 46.2% | 50.4% | 32.4% |
Market Implications and Stakeholder Impact
This currency distribution has significant implications for several key stakeholders in the global economy:
- EU Importers and Exporters: The increased use of the euro in primary and manufactured goods reduces “currency friction.” By settling trades in euros, EU firms avoid the costs and volatility associated with converting funds into U.S. Dollars.
- Central Banks: The data suggests a gradual, albeit uneven, diversification of reserve currency needs. While the dollar remains essential for energy security, the euro’s strength in raw materials and industrial goods reinforces its role as a systemic pillar of global trade.
- Global Suppliers: Non-EU countries providing primary goods are increasingly operating in a dual-currency environment, needing to balance their portfolios between the dollar and the euro to maintain access to European markets.
The primary constraint remains the energy sector. Because petroleum imports are so heavily skewed toward the dollar, the EU remains exposed to U.S. Monetary policy shifts. A strengthening dollar can effectively increase the cost of energy imports for the EU, even if the nominal price of oil remains stable.
Disclaimer: This report is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice.
The next critical checkpoint for these trends will be the release of the comprehensive year-end trade balance reports from Eurostat, which will provide a finalized look at the 2025 currency shares and indicate whether the euro’s gains in primary goods are accelerating or stabilizing.
Do you think the euro can eventually challenge the dollar’s dominance in energy trade, or is the petrodollar here to stay? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
