In the wake of Russia’s airspace restrictions, European airlines have been substantially reducing their flight schedules to China.
Both Virgin Atlantic and SAS Scandinavian Airlines have completely withdrawn their services from the region this year. Additionally, several other airlines, including Finnair, British Airways, Lufthansa, and LOT Polish Airlines, are quietly scaling back their operations to Chinese destinations, as reported by aviation news source Skift.
Following Russia’s extensive invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the EU and UK swiftly enacted a comprehensive ban on flights involving Russian aircraft traversing their airspace. In response, Russia has closed its own airspace, compelling European carriers to chart longer, more costly routes to destinations in Asia.
With fuel expenses representing approximately 25% of an airline’s operational budget, flights to China have seen a significant increase in costs, prompting European airlines to reassess their itineraries. The added duration of these flights necessitates more crew members, further elevating operating expenses.
This situation is particularly adverse for European travelers, as passport holders from 18 European nations can now enter China without needing a visa.
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Reasons Behind the Flight Reductions to China
Unlike the celebratory atmosphere that typically surrounds the launch of a new route, airlines have been notably discreet regarding the sharp decline in flights to China, as noted by Skift.
Data analysis from Cirium Diio reveals a drastic drop for Finnair, which operated 42 nonstop flights weekly from Helsinki to China in August 2019. By August 2024, this number plummeted to just three, alongside a daily service to Hong Kong.
The only remaining mainland route for Finnair is from Helsinki to Shanghai. The hike in travel time is a significant factor in this downturn, increasing from around 8 hours and 30 minutes prior to the war to an average of 11 hours and 24 minutes now.
“Due to restricted Russian airspace, travel times to our Asian destinations have surged by 10 to 40 percent, depending on the specific location,” Christine Rovelli, Chief Revenue Officer of Finnair, conveyed to Skift.
“We have adeptly adjusted our operations and re-oriented our network to prioritize westbound flights while still maintaining a robust presence in critical Asian markets.”
While Finnair faces unique challenges due to its proximity to Russia, many others share similar dilemmas.
British Airways made headlines in August by announcing the suspension of its London Heathrow to Beijing service, which had been operational since 1980. Although flights to Shanghai and Hong Kong remain, the latter will see a reduction in frequency from twice daily to a single flight per day starting at the end of October.
Additionally, Hong Kong services will shift to a smaller aircraft, a Boeing 787-9 with 216 seats, down from the larger Airbus A380, which accommodated 469 passengers.
Meanwhile, the German carrier Lufthansa has indicated it is “reviewing the future” of its daily flights from Frankfurt to Beijing. Similarly, LOT Polish Airlines announced earlier this month significant cuts, including the cancellation of its winter Warsaw to Beijing route.
Chinese Airlines Expanding Flights to Europe
In contrast, Chinese airlines enjoy the freedom to operate flights over Russia, sparing them from the costly detours encountered by their European rivals.
Executives such as Wouter Vermeulen, Air France-KLM’s General Manager for Greater China, have frequently expressed frustration over the “lack of a fair competition” in this regard.
This winter, China-based carriers are set to operate 82% of all flights between China and Europe, a significant rise from 56% pre-pandemic, as noted by John Grant, Chief Analyst at aviation intelligence firm OAG.
Additionally, there will be around 18 new routes introduced this season exclusively by Chinese airlines. Grant’s conclusion? “It’s a madness – there is no significant demand.”
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Other Factors Prompting European Airlines to Exit China
However, the situation is not solely attributable to the Russian airspace predicament.
Many European airlines are redirecting capacity towards other regions in Asia where they, too, must navigate longer routes. For instance, Finnair is boosting its flight offerings to Thailand.
Even Australian airline Qantas canceled its Sydney to Shanghai route last summer despite not being affected by the Russian airspace closures, citing frequent flights operating with half-capacity.
This trend indicates a broader challenging market environment. Tensions in economic relations between China and the West may also be influencing the strategic decisions of European airlines, as suggested by industry experts.
Moreover, demand is a pressing concern, as evidenced by the slowdown of China’s economy, which seems to be curtailing outbound travel. International interest in visiting China has also waned considerably.
As of July this year, only 17.25 million foreign visitors arrived in China, a stark contrast to the 49.1 million travelers recorded in the pre-pandemic year of 2019.
Despite these challenges, most European airlines are not entirely abandoning the Chinese market; they aim to maintain a presence, ready for a potential recovery.