2024-10-02 12:10:14
Israel eliminated the head of Hezbollah with an airstrike on the Lebanese capital Beirut on Friday. An expert explains what this means for the Middle East conflict.
The Secretary General of Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in an Israeli airstrike on Friday evening. Nasrallah had switched to “his master’s side” and joined his “great and immortal martyrs,” the terrorist organization said on Telegram.
A few hours earlier, the Israeli military had announced the death of the 64-year-old Hezbollah leader. “Hassan Nasrallah will no longer be able to terrorize the world,” the military said. But what impact does the death of the Islamist leader have on the region? Could it lead to an expansion of the Middle East conflict? t-online spoke about this with political scientist Christian Mölling.
t-online: Mr. Mölling, the head of Hezbollah, Hasan Nasrallah, was killed by Israeli air strikes. What does this mean for the conflict between Israel and the terrorist militia and the Middle East in general?
Christian Mölling: For now, it shows that Israel’s strategy continues to work. With the army somewhat in control of the Gaza Strip, Israel is now turning its attention to the north and Hezbollah.
Israel tries to minimize the strength of its opponents. We have seen in the last few weeks and months that the country has penetrated very deeply into the structures of its opponents. This is a dangerous strategy. Because we don’t know how Iran will react to this and what else is possible in the future.
Hezbollah has already been significantly weakened by the attacks on pagers, radios and massive air strikes in recent days. Are we seeing this organization crumble?
No, I don’t think so. There will be a new leader of Hezbollah and a resurgence of the group. It is part of the Middle East conflict that every short-term success leads to new hatred and new fighters. Hamas and Hezbollah will find new members. In the long term, this is not a way out of violence.
Christian Mölling is director of the Bertelsmann Foundation’s “Europe’s Future” program. Before that, he worked for the “German Society for Foreign Policy” (DGAP). He studied political science, economics and history at the universities of Duisburg and Warwick and received his doctorate at the Ludwig Maximilians University in Munich.
Then why does Israel continue on this path?
Since Israel obviously assumes that threats are not enough to defend itself and that peace and an end to violence are not possible, military strikes can be seen as a strategy. At the same time, the government is also doing this for domestic political reasons because it can distract from its own problems.
Even if there can be no long-term peace, won’t such actions lead to an ever-increasing spiral of violence in the region?
The violence will continue. But the image of the spiral is wrong. The fighting cannot continue indefinitely. At some point a maximum is reached. I don’t know if we’re at that point yet. But the question should rather be: What choice does Israel have? The country could, of course, stop fighting and hope it is not attacked. However, this hope is gone in Israel after the attacks on October 7th. So the Israeli answer is: If everything is already in flames, we will take action against all actors who want to destroy our state. In return, Israel even accepts that it will isolate itself internationally and even offend the USA.
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Has Nasrallah’s death made a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah impossible?
That’s hard to say. A ceasefire could make tactical sense for Hezbollah because it is so weakened. But how should this be communicated to members right now? At the moment that would seem like a surrender.
The USA has recently repeatedly said that it had not been informed about Israel’s military plans. How much influence can the West currently have on this conflict?
Israel is not the puppet of the USA. At the same time, the country cannot act completely alone. Joe Biden obviously attaches great importance to Israel’s right to self-defense. At the same time, the US lacks the leverage to put pressure on Israel without weakening the country against its enemies. That’s why it’s possible that the USA won’t react to the current situation. So far they have failed with a hostage exchange and a ceasefire. As long as Iran doesn’t get involved and cross a red line, I don’t think the Americans will become more involved in the conflict.