2024-05-09 06:33:04
It has been argued that as the U.S. security burden in Northeast Asia increases due to population decline due to Korea‘s low birth rate and aging population, there may be greater pressure on the U.S. to reduce investment in security on the Korean Peninsula, including reducing U.S. troops stationed in Korea.
Nicholas Eberstadt, a senior researcher at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), said in an article for Foreign Affairs, a diplomatic magazine, on the 8th (local time), “The population decline in Northeast Asia is an unprecedented and dramatic demographic change,” and “The United States is concerned about the security of (Korea and Japan).” “There may be pressure to reduce investment, which may lead to friction,” he pointed out.
Citing UN population projections, senior researcher Eberstadt said, “By 2050, Korea’s population is expected to decrease by 12%, and China and Japan’s population is expected to decrease by 8% and 18%, respectively.” “On the other hand, the U.S. population is expected to decrease by 12% during the same period.” “It will increase by %,” he pointed out. He continued, “Among the countries where the birth rate fell by 25% below the replacement rate (2.1 people), which is the total fertility rate that can maintain the current population level, no country has yet recovered to the replacement rate, even temporarily.”
“China’s population decline will benefit the United States geopolitically,” he said. “However, other countries that have been of great help to the United States (such as Korea and Japan) will no longer be able to provide the same contribution to regional security as they do now due to population decline.” “It will happen,” he predicted. This could be a burden on the United States in the field of security as South Korea faces difficulties in maintaining its military amid a slowing economic growth rate and soaring welfare spending due to population decline.
He predicted, “It will become difficult for these countries to provide the same contribution to regional security to the United States as in the past,” and “On the other hand, America’s economic and military influence may become more important than ever for the security of Korea and Japan.” “This will shift more of the burden to the United States,” he said, adding, “This will increase pressure on the United States to scale back support for these countries.”
“The United States is already complaining that its allies are spending too little on defense,” he said. “The United States must pay attention to the demographic trends that East Asia will face in the future and actively work with regional allies to address the security burden.” “He emphasized.
Washington = Correspondent Moon Byeong-ki [email protected]
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2024-05-09 06:33:04