When they sold Otávio to Saudi Arabia, FC Porto had a problem on their hands. Who would play the role of false winger, with the capacity to be, at the same time, a creative player who could unbalance and a fighter to close down as a third midfielder? The experiences were varied and ended with Sérgio Conceição giving up: more than a new Otávio, he invented a new system that allowed the same balances.
In 2024, a new Otávio appeared. And the replacement is not just in name. Because he is a central defender – and therefore far from an alternative to the departed Brazilian midfielder – this Otávio also helps FC Porto defend better. The departure of the old Otávio “struggled” FC Porto, but the arrival of the new one allowed things to be rebalanced.
Since arriving from Famalicão, in the winter market, the 21-year-old Brazilian central defender has already participated in five games. The improvement in FC Porto’s defensive level was something that naked observation suggested, making them appear to be a less exposed team. And the numbers confirm it.
A survey using the site FotMob shows that in the ten games prior to Otávio’s entry into the eleven, FC Porto had 0.8 goals conceded per game, 9.5 shots conceded, 1.04 expected goals against, 1.7 clear scoring opportunities allowed and allowed 14.2 touches of the ball to the opponent in their area.
In the five games with Otávio, all these values dropped – some clearly. There are now only 0.2 goals conceded (it was Gil Vicente’s goal), 6.8 shots allowed, 0.35 expected goals against, one great opportunity conceded and 12 touches in their area.
These last two metrics had insignificant declines, but they still fit into the downward trend of all defensive aspects analyzed.
There is also a less clear fact, because Otávio is just one, but the value of duels won per game also grew – only with Estrela da Amadora did the team not win more duels than it lost, while in the games before that it was surpassed by some times.
Defend louder
All of this takes on greater significance if we take into account that there have been no special changes to the team. The system remains the same and the players, with one variation or another, are globally the same.
The difference is Otávio. And having Otávio means not only conceding less to opponents, but also defending differently. The Brazilian central defender, forceful in duels and quick in controlling depth, allows FC Porto to defend a good few meters higher up, as he either wins more duels in the midfield area, due to his physical strength and good cutting time, or, if is beaten, he has much greater capacity than Fábio Cardoso to go after his opponents.
These two strengths allow FC Porto to overcome a gap that occurred during many weeks of this season, which was the way in which the defense was forced to compensate for the left central defender’s lack of speed, leaving some space between the midline and the defense.
Without this being definitive data of indisputable relevance, it is, nevertheless, curious to realize that, individually, Otávio at FC Porto has received an average of 7.4 points per game on FotMob, against just 6.8 from Fábio Cardoso at their season average in 90-minute games – a value that already goes into the spectrum of negative performance according to the metric site of statistics.
Also as a curiosity, since it is difficult to measure the practical impact of this detail, João Mário and Wendell have already scored goals in these five games with Otávio and, especially in the case of the Brazilian, there seems to be a greater offensive propensity.
Could it be a coincidence? He can. Is a larger sample needed? Perhaps yes. But having Otávio at your side will, theoretically, be a relief for any full-back – especially one like Wendell, whose offensive weapons are infinitely superior to his defensive ones.