U.S. stock-index futures were little changed on Sunday as investors awaited clues from the Federal Reserve’s upcoming Jackson Hole meeting, while oil prices edged higher amid tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Bitcoin BTCUSD fell 3% over the week, trading just above $63,000, while oil prices rebounded after a Wall Street Journal report suggested Iran was preparing to escalate its conflict with the U.S. and Gulf allies.
Fed’s Jackson Hole Focus Intensifies as Markets Await Clues
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose 3.8 basis points last week to 4.695%, reflecting concerns over persistent inflation and the economic impact of artificial intelligence investments. Despite these pressures, the S&P 500 SPX gained 0.4% for the week, closing at a record high, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA slipped 0.6%.
Oil Prices Climb as Strait of Hormuz Tensions Linger
Crude oil prices edged higher amid reports of an oil tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping lane. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose to $83.27 a barrel, while Brent crude climbed to $88.98, though both remained below this year’s peaks. Analysts at Oxford Economics warned that disruptions in the strait could persist, keeping Brent prices in the mid-$80s through year-end.
President Trump’s assertion on Truth Social that the U.S. is in complete control of the strait
contrasted with the reality of stalled talks between Washington and Tehran. Aarathi Krishnan of Raksha Intelligence Futures highlighted that even a deal to reopen the strait would not immediately restore normalcy, as insurers require patterns over two to three months
to lower risk premiums. For insurers to bring down premiums they don’t wait for the deal to be announced, they look for patterns over two to three months,
she says.
Economic Indicators and Market Outlook
The Federal Open Market Committee’s upcoming meeting in September has sparked debate over whether the Fed will raise interest rates. As of Sunday, expectations for a rate hike stood at 33% according to CME’s FedWatch tool. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) revised its global oil demand forecast downward, citing weaker economic growth and increased strategic stockpile releases.
Analysts at Ritterbusch & Associates cautioned that forecasts for oil demand and supply don’t carry the weight they would under normal market conditions
due to the uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict. WTI crude fell 0.5% to $82.78, while Brent dropped 0.6% to $88.36, reflecting cautious trading ahead of key economic data and geopolitical developments.
What Comes Next for Markets and Geopolitics
The coming week will test market resilience as investors weigh the Fed’s policy path against escalating tensions in the Middle East. With the Jackson Hole meeting just weeks away, the Fed’s communication style under Warsh—less forward guidance than his predecessor, Jerome Powell—could amplify uncertainty. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint, with insurers and shipping companies closely monitoring developments.
For now, the markets are balancing optimism about the U.S. economy’s strength with concerns over inflation and geopolitical risks.
