florida Braces for Potential Tropical Development as Barry Dissipates Over Mexico
A low chance of tropical development near Florida looms as the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry move away from Mexico,marking a continued active start to the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.While Barry quickly weakened after making landfall, forecasters are closely monitoring a new area of low pressure that could bring important rainfall to the southeastern United States.
Barry’s Brief Life and Lingering Threat
Tropical Storm Barry made landfall along the Mexican coast after midnight on Monday, June 30th, with sustained winds of 45 mph. Though,the storm’s lifespan proved to be short-lived. By 5 a.m. local time, the remnants of Barry were located approximately 100 miles northwest of Tampico, Mexico, with winds diminished to 30 mph. Despite its dissipation, the system is still expected to deliver 3-5 inches of rain – with isolated areas perhaps receiving up to 10 inches – across portions of the Mexican states of San Luis Potosi and Tamaulipas.
“This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain,” the National Hurricane Centre (NHC) stated.
New Disturbance Forming Near Florida
The NHC, in its 8 a.m. outlook, highlighted a developing area of low pressure that could impact the southeastern U.S. coast, Florida, or the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A frontal boundary is forecast to stall and weaken, creating conditions conducive to tropical or subtropical development. This potential development stretches across all of central Florida.
According to forecasters, “Some gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur thereafter as the low moves little.” The NHC currently assigns a 20% chance of development over the next seven days.
Rain Expected Regardless of Development
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Melbourne anticipates a high probability of rain around the Fourth of july holiday and into the following weekend, irrespective of whether the low pressure system develops further.
“Unsettled conditions with high rain chances expected to continue into the extended forecast range as the stalled front accompanied by copious moisture sags into the southeast and towards Florida,” a forecaster explained. “Heavy rainfall will be the primary concern regardless of development. Multiple rounds of showers and storms will be possible each day, increasing/compounding concerns for flooding.”
Potential for a Named Storm: Chantal on the Horizon
Should the system intensify, it could become Tropical Storm Chantal, the third named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.This follows Tropical Storm Andrea, which briefly formed last week in the mid-Atlantic but posed no threat to land.
2025 Hurricane Season Outlook
despite a slow start, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) maintains its forecast for an active season, predicting 13 to 19 named storms, with 6-10 expected to become hurricanes. Of those, 3-5 could potentially strengthen into major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher. The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs through November 30th.
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Residents and visitors in Florida and the southeastern U.S. are urged to closely monitor forecasts and prepare for the possibility of heavy rainfall and potential flooding in the coming days.
The Implications of an Active Hurricane Season
With the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season already showing signs of activity, it’s crucial to understand what an “above-normal” season means and how it can impact Florida and other vulnerable areas.As the remnants of Barry move out over Mexico and forecasters watch a new area of low pressure near Florida, NOAA’s prediction of an above-normal season takes on urgent meaning.
NOAA’s outlook, released on May 22nd, 2025, forecasts a 60% chance of an above-normal season, with a 30% chance of a near-normal season and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season [[2]] [[1]]. This suggests more named storms, hurricanes, and potentially major hurricanes than the historical average. The consequences extend beyond the immediate threat of the storm itself.
What Defines an “Above-Normal” Season?
The Atlantic hurricane season’s “normal” is based on a 30-year average of activity. An above-normal season typically means:
- More named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher).
- More hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher).
- A higher likelihood of major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5 with winds exceeding 111 mph).
This is due to a multitude of factors in motion from tropical Pacific to Atlantic conditions, as noted by Colorado State University earlier this month. The tropical Pacific has ENSO neutral conditions, indicating that those conditions are projected to persist through the whole season [[3]]. Those conditions are driving and creating an environment for a higher probability of storms.
An active hurricane season increases the risk of property damage, displacement of people, and infrastructure damage in coastal areas. The increased frequency and intensity of storms can also strain resources, such as emergency services and insurance companies.
Deep Dive: Understanding the Threats
While we’ve examined Barry’s dissipation and the potential for Tropical Storm Chantal, it’s important to consider the broader implications of an active hurricane season. The more storms we see,the greater the chance of one or more making landfall,causing more than typical damage to coastal communities.
Storm Surge
One of the most dangerous hazards associated with hurricanes is storm surge – the abnormal rise of water generated by a storm, over and above the predicted tide. Storm surge is often the greatest threat to life and property from a hurricane, especially if it coincides with high tide.
Flooding
Heavy rainfall from hurricanes can lead to catastrophic flooding, both inland and along the coast. This flooding can inundate homes and businesses, as well as overwhelm drainage systems, making evacuation increasingly difficult.
High Winds
The obvious threat, high winds from a hurricane can cause damage to roofs, windows, and other elements. Sustained winds and gusts have the power to cause trees to fall, down power lines, and cause significant structural devastation.
Preparing for the Worst: Actionable Steps
With the potential for an active season, proactive measures are essential. here are some actionable steps to consider:
- Review Your Insurance: Ensure your homeowner’s or renter’s insurance policy covers hurricane damage and flood damage. Understand the deductibles and coverage limits.
- Create an Emergency Kit: Include non-perishable food, water (at least one gallon per person per day for several days), a first-aid kit, medications, a flashlight, a battery-powered or hand-crank radio, and extra batteries.
- develop an Evacuation Plan: Know your evacuation zone and have a designated safe place to go if an evacuation order is issued. Plan your route and ensure you have transportation.
- Protect Your Property: Trim trees and shrubs around your home. Secure lose outdoor belongings. Board up windows or install hurricane shutters.
- Stay Informed: Monitor weather forecasts from reliable sources, such as the National Hurricane centre (NHC) and your local National Weather Service (NWS) office. Sign up for emergency alerts from your local authorities.
FAQs: Addressing Common Concerns
Here are some frequently asked questions about preparing for an active hurricane season:
What is the difference between a hurricane watch and a hurricane warning?
A hurricane watch is issued 48 hours before the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds, while a hurricane warning is issued 36 hours before the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds. A watch means a hurricane is absolutely possible, and a warning means a hurricane is expected.
How can I protect my home from storm surge?
Building codes requires newly constructing structures to be strong enough to withstand storm surges and the best way to protect your home from surge is to elevate your house.
Where can I find reliable evacuation facts?
Check with your local emergency management agency. They will have information about evacuation zones,routes,and shelters.Always heed the advice of local authorities.
This year’s prediction of an above-normal hurricane season is a key reminder for Floridians and those along the U.S. Southeast coast to make hurricane preparedness their priority. Forecasters expect an active 2025, meaning that taking precautions now can lessen the impact of the upcoming storms.
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