2023-11-06 13:14:23
For a month now, the supermarket aisles of the Lebanon They resemble those of pandemic times. There is food shortage, a lot of tension on the faces, this time uncovered, and quite a hurry. The overflowing carts show the desire to stock up on population accustomed to conflict and instability, but that, in 2023, would catch him in his lowest hours. Lebanon, immersed in a economic debacle who sees no end, fears that expansion of the war against Israel that Hezbollah fighters undertake in the south will spread to other corners of the country and end up plunging it into the deepest darkness. “In practice, Lebanon does not have the logistical capacity to withstand the war,” denounces the Lebanese economist Layal Mansour Ichrakieh.
“It is already in a deep depressionan economic crisis multidimensionalwhere the banking sector has practically collapsed, the citizens suffer the end of the Lebanese pound, with the loss of 98% of its value, rampant inflation, and the political disaster “by not having a governor of the Central Bank, nor a president, nor a government,” confirms this macroeconomist specialized in dollarized and developing countries to El Periódico de Cataluña, from Prensa Ibérica. Since Hezbollah began launching rockets and attacks on Israel a day after Hamas’ offensive against the Jewish state, the war drums They haven’t stopped ringing. “Lebanon is too fragile not only to face a war, but also to face even heavy rains,” she ironically.
Defenselessness due to a “foreign decision”
On the other side of a border guarded by special forces of United NationsIsrael has already announced that it is not interested in this escalation. Most of their efforts are put into ground operation over the Gaza Strip and the hundreds of bombings on civilian neighborhoods, hospitals and bakeries that have killed more than 9,000 Palestinians. Among Lebanon’s population, there is little appetite for war. “All of Lebanon, including Hezbollah, we don’t want a war“, said a few days ago the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Lebanon, Abdullah Bou Habib, in regular contact with the Lebanese militia. “We have spoken with them and my impression is that they will not start a war,” he noted. The first speech of its leader Hasan Nasrallah seems to indicate the same.
Among its citizens, the feeling is helplessness. “Whether there will be war or not depends on Iran, It’s a foreign decision and not a local decision,” says Mansour Ichrakieh. “Lebanon does not want a war at all, but it can easily be a victim of Iran if it chooses to do so,” he laments. The country of cedars suffers political misrule for a year and a half due to the inability of its leaders to form a stable Executive. Furthermore, they do not have president since October of last year. The financial crisis that the country has been experiencing during the last four years, considered by the World Bank as one of the worst in the world since the 19th century, has caused three quarters of the population try to survive below the poverty line.
Exodus of the population from the south
Added to this catastrophic context, the population of the south of the country is already suffering the consequences of an open war in its territory. On the Lebanese side, at least 20,000 people have fled towards the north of the country, according to the United Nations International Organization for Migration. “Many southern regions are becoming empty, we have thousands of Lebanese displaced to Beirut and the surrounding regions,” explains Mansour Ichrakieh. “Unfortunately, since the rules and regulations are not respected, many people are trying to take advantage of the displaced, especially in the rent raising prices to illogical and exorbitant levels,” he denounces this newspaper.
The consequences of a war on a territory are always tragic, but, in Lebanon, they can be lethal for the very existence of the country. Lebanese society is still trying to recover from the explosion in the port of Beirut, the coronavirus pandemic, the presence of two million Syrian refugees in the country and one of the rates of inflation highest in the world, while trying to navigate the economic crisis as best it can. “The majority of displaced people are losing their jobs, which has a direct negative economic impact on a small and large scale,” says Mansour Ichrakieh. At an economic level, the effects of the conflict can be irreversible.
“A recurrent war for Lebanon since 1975 already gives it a notoriety of unstable country and would classify it as a territory with high risk investments due to its weak and corrupt internal economic management”says the economist. “But, above all, the loss of its citizens is sufficient argument to avoid any possible war in the future,” adds Mansour Ichrakieh. The fragile Lebanon observes with caution any movement and declaration of Hezbollah and Israel, because it knows that a simple abrupt gesture can be its condemnation and even its death sentence. While they use their last pounds to fill their pantries, the ghosts of the past have already settled in the Mediterranean houses of the country of cedars.
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