Two thirds of world trade and population, over 80% of global GDP. The figures still photograph just how relevant the G20 is. But behind the numbers there is reality. A reality in which multilateral platforms seem to have entered the downward phase. Suffice it to say that at the Rome event, scheduled for Saturday and Sunday 30 and 31 October, there will not be two leaders among the most populous and most relevant countries in the world. We are obviously talking about China and Russia, with Xi Jinping and Vladiir Putin who for different reasons have chosen not to appear in Italy, as they had already done on the occasion of the extraordinary G20 on Afghanistan a few weeks ago. They will speak via videoconference, of course, but diplomacy is done face to face, even in times of post Covid.
It is not really a problem of China and Russia alone, but much more general. The events of recent months, from the US withdrawal from Afghanistan to the announcement of the Aukus defense pact, have shown that the current global architecture is anything but integrated and communicative between all its components. Not even among those who are supposed to be partners or allies. Just think of the clamorous diplomatic controversy between France, the USA, the United Kingdom and Australia over the agreement on the Pacific which in fact led to the unilateral breaking of an agreement for the supply of French submarines to Canberra, replaced overnight by nuclear-powered ones that can secure Washington with its productive and technological support.
It is no coincidence that Joe Biden and Emmanuel Macron will meet in a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the G20 to discuss the issue and bring relations back on track. But the crossed perplexities are wasted, between Washington which would like the European countries more openly sided by its side in the dispute with China, the European countries which instead would like in no particular order to be able to continue to freely pursue their interests without being pulled by the jacket in strategic and ideological challenges. The same one he would like to avoid for exampleto South Korea, whose President Moon Jae-in significantly met Pope Francis by officially inviting him to visit the Korean peninsula, including the northern part occupied by the Kim Jong-un regime.
To make noise, as mentioned, it is the absence of China and Russia, which have recently appeared increasingly aligned. This is demonstrated by the repeated joint military exercises and the recent passage of ships of the two fleets in the Tsugaru Strait between the two main islands of the Japanese archipelago. But this is also demonstrated by the fact that Beijing and Moscow are insisting on alternative platforms to those they now perceive as obsolete because they are Western-led and therefore “hostile”. This is demonstrated by the Afghan case, on which China and Russia meet regularly in formats that involve the countries of Central or South Asia but not Western ones. The rhetoric is taking on increasingly clear characters: G20, G7 and company are platforms for the “rich and powerful Westerners”, while we work alongside developing countries.