Gallup Ends 88-Year Tradition of Presidential Approval Tracking
After nearly a century of shaping political discourse, the renowned Gallup organization has ceased publishing its Presidential Approval Index, a metric that has long served as a key barometer of American sentiment towards the nation’s commander-in-chief.
The decision, announced this week, marks the end of an 88-year tradition and arrives as President Donald Trump approaches the midpoint of his second term. Founded in 1935 by George Gallup, the American Institute of Public Opinion quickly gained prominence by accurately predicting Franklin D. Roosevelt’s victory over Alf Landon, establishing a legacy of influential polling.
The move comes as the index showed waning support for the current president. While reaching a high of 47% approval, the latest measurement from early December revealed a decline to 36%, the lowest point of his second presidency – dipping even below the 34% recorded in 2021. A company spokesperson indicated the change “reflects an evolution in how Gallup approaches its public research and thought leadership,” as part of a broader effort to align its work with its core mission.
For decades, the Presidential Approval Index has been an indispensable tool for media outlets, providing a snapshot of public perception of the sitting president. As Peter Baker, a journalist with The New York Times, noted on X, the index offered “particularly valuable” historical context, enabling comparisons and the identification of trends.
The decision arrives amidst a broader climate of distrust in polling, fueled in part by high-profile miscalculations and direct attacks on the integrity of survey data. Before retaking office, Trump even filed a lawsuit against the Des Moines Register and its pollster, Ann Selzer, over a survey that initially indicated a victory for Kamala Harris in Iowa. He labeled the poll a “fraud and election interference,” though ultimately won the state by a 13-point margin.
This is not the first time Gallup has recalibrated its approach to political polling. In 2015, the organization stepped away from election polls, acknowledging the increasingly competitive and often unpredictable nature of modern campaigns. That decision preceded Trump’s surprising victory in 2016, a result that significantly damaged the credibility of the polling industry as a whole. Gallup’s history is also marked by a notable miscalculation in 1948, when it predicted Thomas Dewey would defeat Harry S. Truman by a margin of 5% to 15%. Truman ultimately won by 4.5 percentage points, a failure attributed to prematurely concluding fieldwork three weeks before the election and missing a late surge in support for the incumbent.
The shift also comes as the traditional method of telephone interviewing, upon which Gallup’s reliability has long been based, faces its own challenges.
“During almost a century, Gallup surveys have provided a rigorous and independent view of the American people: their perspectives, values and lifestyles,” a company statement released via USA Today explained. “The indices of approval have been part of Gallup’s history. At the same time, the context surrounding these measurements has changed. Our commitment is to carry out long-term and methodologically sound research on issues and conditions that affect people’s lives.”
The end of the Presidential Approval Index signals a significant shift in the landscape of American political analysis, leaving a void in the readily available data used to gauge public sentiment. While Gallup intends to continue its broader research efforts, the absence of this long-standing metric will undoubtedly be felt by journalists, political strategists, and the public alike.
