2023-05-18 09:52:00
Global temperatures will break records in the next five years. An update from the World Meteorological Organization, a UN body, has pointed out that there is a 98 percent chance that at least one of the next five years is the hottest on record. And not only that: there is a 66 percent chance that in at least one of these years the critical global warming threshold of 1.5°C will be exceeded.
There is also a 32 percent chance that the average temperature in the next five years will exceed the 1.5°C threshold. The chance of temporarily exceeding 1.5°C has risen steadily since 2015, when it was close to zero. For between the years 2017 and 2021, the probability rose to 10 percent.
NEW (AND MORE) HEAT RECORDS
Human impact has led to an increase in global average temperatures of more than 1°C since the end of the 19th century, due to the emission of greenhouse gases. According to recent data, the global mean temperature in 2022 exceeded the 1850-1900 average by about 1.15°C, despite the cooling effect caused by the La Niña climate phenomenon. At present, temperatures are increasing by about 0.2°C every decade.
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With more than a century of global mean temperature records at our disposal, one would expect that the task of setting new temperature records would be more difficult, rather than easier. Without a trend, logic would suggest a decline in new records over time, as our accumulated data more effectively captures the full extent of natural climate fluctuations.
However, the reality is different.. The rapid rate of warming of the planet by human action triggers the constant appearance of new heat records, both globally and locally.
THE BOY
The current record for global average temperature was set in 2016, when a significant El Niño event influenced the increase in global average temperature.
El Niño events are associated with above-average sea temperatures over much of the central and eastern Pacific, contributing to warming the lower atmosphere and raising global temperatures by about 0.1°C. Although this increase may seem small, in the context of accelerating global warming, it is often enough to surpass the previous record.
Since the current global temperature record was set seven years ago, human activities have continued to exacerbate the greenhouse effect, raising the possibility of setting a new record.
El Niño indicators are beginning to appear in the Pacific, and their consolidation for June and July seems increasingly feasible. This could represent the first major El Niño event since 2016. Such a phenomenon would considerably increase the probability of breaking the record for the highest global mean temperature recorded that year, particularly in the year 2024.
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