Investment banks and analysts have adjusted their forecasts downward while central banks continue accumulating bullion.
Goldman Sachs Cuts Targets for 2026 and 2027
Goldman Sachs lowered its targets for gold. The investment bank cited a strict stance from the US Federal Reserve and expectations that interest rates will stay higher for longer, Business Standard reported. The investment bank reduced its forecast for the end of 2026 by 500 dollars to 4,150 dollars per ounce, down from its previous 4,650 dollar estimate.
For the end of 2027, the bank cut its target by 600 dollars. It moved from 5,400 dollars down to 4,800 dollars per ounce.
| Period | Old Target | New Target | Reduction |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 2026 | $4,650 | $4,150 | $500 |
| December 2027 | $5,400 | $4,800 | $600 |
Spot gold slipped nearly 1 percent on Friday, November 6, 2026, to 4,049.88 dollars per ounce. Business Standard noted the metal remained on track for a weekly gain of about 5 percent.
Despite the cuts, the bank’s new targets remain above current spot prices.
World Gold Council Assesses Temporary Correction
The World Gold Council stated that October’s drop is a temporary correction rather than the start of a prolonged downturn comparable to 2011, Navbharat Times reported. Two of the three historical conditions required for a recovery—technical weakness and US dollar strength—have been met. This is according to the organization’s analysis of data going back to 2005.
Central bank purchases have provided a floor for the market. Central banks bought 321 tons of net gold in the third quarter of 2026, the highest level since late 2024, according to Vietnam.
Experts Forecast Higher Gold Prices Amid Geopolitical Tensions
Kedia Advisory Managing Director and Director Ajay Kedia told Navbharat Times that gold could reach higher price levels per 10 grams by next Diwali, surpassing its previous peak.
Kotak Neo commodity expert Kainaat Chainwala told Lokmat News Hindi that spot prices could move toward 4,400 dollars to 4,500 dollars per ounce if global geopolitical tensions subside and crude oil prices fall.
Global institutional forecasts for 2027 vary across major financial firms, as outlined by Bhaskar:
- JP Morgan projects gold could reach 6,300 dollars per ounce by the end of 2027.
- Bank of America expects prices to reach 4,750 dollars per ounce in the first quarter of 2027, rising to 5,000 dollars by the second and third quarters.
- Morgan Stanley forecasts an average price of 5,050 dollars per ounce for 2027, with a high of 6,818 dollars and a low of 3,788 dollars, followed by an average of 4,688 dollars in 2028.
Geopolitical risk factors and the ongoing monetary policy stance from the US Federal Reserve remain primary drivers influencing precious metal valuations, according to Kainaat Chainwala, the commodity expert at Kotak Neo. In remarks reported via an agency feed, Chainwala noted that gold prices could recover toward the 4,400 to 4,500 dollar threshold after first crossing an interim hurdle at 4,220 dollars per ounce if easing geopolitical conditions bring relief to the crude oil market.
Silver faces a distinct set of market challenges due to its exposure to industrial applications, particularly within the artificial intelligence and technology sectors. Chainwala cautioned that any tech stock sell-off could drive silver prices down toward 45 dollars per ounce, counteracting potential upside from oil market dynamics. Should macroeconomic conditions stabilize, silver might see a recovery toward 55 to 57 dollars per ounce, with 61 dollars serving as the subsequent resistance level.
Gold offers a more favorable risk-reward balance than silver for retail and institutional participants allocating capital heading into Samvat 2083 amid fluctuating interest rates and Middle Eastern conflicts. Chainwala recommended maintaining a precious metals portfolio. It should be weighted 75 to 80 percent in gold due to its lower volatility and status as a portfolio diversifier.
Chainwala recommended that risk-tolerant investors might allocate 15 to 20 percent to silver.
Ajay Kedia, founder of Kedia Advisory, pointed out that the aggressive early-year surge saw heavy participation by retail traders utilizing borrowed capital. This ultimately exacerbated the correction witnessed in October. Long-term accumulation by central banks, including official purchases by institutions in China and India, continues to support structural demand imbalances.